NFL Week 4 Picks
NFL Week 4 Picks
Two consensus picks coming off another blazing hot 25-9 week!
If you listen to the podcast (Single Leg Parlay, available wherever you get your podcasts (please rate, review, subscribe, etc.)), you already know we’ve been screaming at anyone who will listen that they need to be tailing our NFL picks. We went 25-9 last week. 25 is a lot more than 9. Our worst week, we hit at a 65% clip. We’re 58-22 on the season, which means a $25 unit bettor is up $769.50 in just three weeks. If you don’t have the bankroll to tail all of the picks, no problem. You could pick any one member to tail and you’d be up no matter who you picked.
We keep saying not to expect this to continue, and we keep hitting. I don’t know what to say. I’ve even looked at how likely I am to jinx us here, but last year, Andy and I were in the black 13 of 17 weeks, Danny and Matt were also up significantly more than they were down on a week-to-week basis as well. Don’t go betting your mortgage, but it’s a pretty safe bet you’ll get your money back tailing us in any given week.
Podcast best bets went 2-3 last week.
Consensus bets went 3-0 last week.
Teaser legs went 3-3, so you’d have gone 3-12 on the Wongs last week. It’s been a rough start for the Wongs this year. We’ll see if this week picks up.
Shall we stunt on ‘em another week?
DAL at NYG
CONSENSUS! Andy is going in on the TNF under here, DAL/NYG u45, but the consensus play is on the Cowboys to right the ship after dropping one against the Ravens. Al and Matt are on DAL -5.5 at NYG.
NO at ATL
Andy’s taking the Saints +1.5 here and I like it. A buy low spot for the Saints.
CIN at CAR
Andy again is on the under here. Despite the offensive firepower these teams showed in Week 4, Andy thinks this one’s a snoozefest. He might be thinking Andy Dalton comes down to Earth a little bit here. CIN/CAR u48.5.
LAR at CHI
I’m on the Bears here. I got it at -2.5 but it has since moved to 3, so I’m grading it there. There’s been a lot of talk about how Caleb Williams is fraudulent and he doesn’t have what it takes to excel at the NFL level. I’m not buying it. He’s at home with a really good defense behind him, going against a beat up Rams team. I’ll hold my nose and lay it with the home side. CHI -3 vs LAR.
MIN at GB
We bounce over to another NFC North locale, where Matt is taking GB -2.5 vs MIN. A bold one here! Everyone’s high on the Vikings after their hot start, but Matt thinks the potential return of Jordan Love results in another W in the Packers’ win column.
JAX at HOU
Two plays here. Andy’s got a play on the total, JAX/HOU u45 while Matt is taking the points with the Jags, JAX +8.5. I can’t say I endorse this one, but for my Jags fan buddies, I hope Matt’s right. They can’t keep dropping games the way they have been, can they?
PIT at IND
Another Steelers game, another bet from Matt where he fades their opponent’s team total. This time it’s the Colts’ turn. IND TT u20.
DEN at NYJ
Andy is taking the points with the Broncos on the road. I guess Bo is gonna Nix the Jets’ plans for another easy win. Hmm, that felt forced. DEN +7.5 at NYJ.
PHI at TB
Reviewing these picks so far, and it’s starting to feel like we may be leaning in a little too hard on the unpopular sides. But hey, we’ve built some bankroll to gamble with. I’m on the Bucs here, TB +2 v PHI.
WAS at ARI
This is going to be a fantastic game. The Commanders coming off an all-time offensive performance against a Cardinals team that looks a lot feistier than pundits thought. I’m taking ARI -3.5 vs WAS.
NE at SF
Alright. I know this is a big spread, but don’t overthink this one. The 49ers are going to be a little healthier this week than they were last week. Brock Purdy needs weapons to succeed, and he should get at least one back this week. Al’s on SF -10.5 vs NE.
KC at LAC
CONSENSUS! And here, finally, is our second consensus pick. Al and Andy are taking the points with the Chargers at home. The Chiefs may be 3-0, but they’re awfully close to being 0-3. A toe landed OOB, a one point win over the 0-3 Bengals, and a failed comeback drive by the Falcons all could have ended differently. Now you’re telling me they’re laying more than a touchdown on the road against a division rival? C’mon. LAC +7.5, +8.5 vs KC.
CLE at LV
Do not watch this game. This one’s gonna stink. It may even be close, but it’s not worth committing 3+ hours of your life to. I beg you, just check Red Zone after you and Al lay it with the Raiders here, LV -2 vs CLE.
BUF at BAL
Buffalo is another undefeated team, and even though they’ve outscored their opponents convincingly after the first half Week 1, those three wins are against the Cardinals by 6, and then the sort of Tua-less Dolphins, and the disintegrating Jags. Time to see how they play against a quality team with their back against the wall. I’m taking the Ravens at home, BAL -2.5 vs BUF.
Wong Teasers
If you’re unfamiliar with a Wong teaser, or teasers in general, check out the explainer in this post.
Here are the Wong teaser legs this week: TB +2, KC -7.5, NYJ -7.5, NO +2.5, MIN +2.5, IND +1.5, CLE +2, BUF +2.5.
Beyond those, here are some teams with lines moving toward the Wong range: LAR +3, SEA +3.5.
I actually like a lot of the Wongs this week. I think I’ll play TB +8, NYJ -7.5, NO +2.5, MIN +2.5, and BUF +2.5 in all two-leg combos. That’s 10 bets. Let’s see how those ones pan out, just for fun.
Al
Season record: (18-6)
DAL -5.5, CHI -3, TB +2, ARI -3.5, SF -10.5, LAC +7.5, LV -2, BAL -2.5
Andy
Season record: (11-7)
DAL/NYG u45, NO +1.5, CIN/CAR u48.5, JAX/HOU u45, DEN +7.5, LAC +8.5
Chris
Season record: (4-3)
None.
Danny
Season record: (15-5-1)
None.
Matt
Season record: (10-1-1)
DAL -5.5, GB -2.5, JAX +8.5, IND TT u20
When my 61% win rate is the one bringing down the average, you know we're doing good! Matt is over 90% and Al and Danny are both at 75%.
Thank you guys!