NFL Futures
Win Totals
Hi!
You may remember me from such emails as “Al’s NCAAF Week 13 Plays” or “Al’s NFL Week 12 Plays”! I’m not Troy McClure, and I want to let you know about some win totals futures bets I placed yesterday!
Feel free to bet these if you can still get these numbers at reasonable odds. Or don’t! You’re a fully formed human capable of making your own decisions and you don’t need me to tell you what to do with you money (bet it on these win totals though).
Win Total Overs
These are teams I’m bullish on based on their performance to date, their current win total, their remaining schedule, the price, and their projected win total at season’s end.
New Orleans o4.5 -165
The Saints have only managed 2 wins on the season, against a bad Giants team and a Panthers team no one seems to know what to make of. They’ve got at least three winnable games left on the schedule with the Dolphins, Jets, and Titans. They also play the Panthers again. Right there, they can potentially clear this number. Add in a pair of division games against the struggling Falcons, and the Saints have a decent shot to hit 5 wins.
Detroit o10.5 -130
The Lions are 6-4 and all of their remaining games are winnable. Add in that almost all of their remaining games are indoors, and I think there’s a good chance they clear this number by a full game. This is a 12 win team whose floor is 10 wins. That’s good odds!
Indianapolis o11.5 -175
Some people aren’t sure about this Colts team. They’ve already won 8 games which means we just need above .500 play down a stretch that includes Houston twice and Jacksonville twice. If they drop any of those, they can still get wins against Kansas City this week, or Seattle or San Francisco later. If you believe in the Colts, this is an easy bet.
Philadelphia o12.5 -165
Look, -165 for a team to hit 13 wins sounds absurd but this Eagles team is great and they’ve got winnable games throughout their remaining schedule. They might win 15.
Tampa Bay o10.5 -120
The Bucs are 6-4 and are seemingly unable to win big. You might think they’ll struggle to hit 11 wins. But if you look at their schedule, they’ve played a ridiculous slate to date, with Philly, Seattle, San Fran, Detroit, New England and Buffalo in their rear-view. While they still have the Rams this week, the schedule is smooth sailing after that. Arizona, New Orleans, Atlanta, Miami and Carolina twice. That’s six games they should win. We’ve even left room for them to drop one AND lose to LA.
Kansas City o10.5 +115
The Chiefs are .500 this late in the season for probably the first time with Mahomes under center. Everyone’s panicking. “The Chiefs dynasty is over!” I think two things can be true at the same time. The dynasty may be over (or it may not!), but this team can still hit 11 wins AND AT PLUS MONEY! Dallas, Houston, Chargers, Titans, Broncos rematch, and Raiders still await. Tell me, with confidence, they won’t win all of those.
Houston o8.5 +130
The Texans were supposed to be a Super Bowl contender this year. They flamed out early and have been left for dead since November hit. However, they’re still 5-5 and they have one of the best defenses in the league. If the offense can pull their weight, they should be able to hit 8 wins easily, which means we’ve got 4 coin flip opportunities for their harder matchups. It’s worth a little beer money to find out if we’re right.
Win Total Unders
Alright, you’re probably tired of all the reasons teams are going to straighten up and fly right down the stretch. Here are the teams that are tanking.
Arizona u5.5 -105
The Cardinals have 3 wins already. We can only afford two more dubs and they’ve got 7 left to play. HOWEVA! They face a tough Jags team this week followed by the Buc and Rams. They don’t know who they want at QB. The offense is banged up. I think this team quits down the stretch. While they can beat teams like Houston, Atlanta, or Cincy, I think it’s just as likely that they lose all of those. Worth the dice roll at near-even odds.
Cincinnati u5.5 +135
Is Joe Burrow coming back? Maybe. Thought probably not, I’d say. If this team was in playoff contention, I wouldn’t touch this. But despite some winnable games to end the year, there’s zero chance they win on for another month, with the Pats, Ravens, Bills, and Ravens again on deck.
Baltimore u9.5 +135
I know, I just said the Ravens are going to beat the Bengals twice still. But even when that happens and they beat the Jets this week, that’s still just 8 wins with two games against the Steelers remaining, plus matchups against the Pats and at Green Bay. They’ve got to win two of those for this one to fail. It’s worth the plus money shot.
Miami u6.5 +115
SLP Boys avert your eyes. The Fins are down bad. Firing Chris Grier seems to have livened them up, but it looks like they can’t get out of their own way every snap. Is this team going to win against the Steelers, Bucs or Pats? If not, then they’ve got to win all three against the Saints, Jets, and Bengals. Even if they steal a win against a good team, whose to say they don’t give it right back against a bad one?
Green Bay u10.5 -160
Finally, the Packers have five division games remaining. Besides those, they play at Denver and host the Ravens. Now, it’s possible they win those two, but even if they do, they’ve got to win 3 division games to clear this mark. I think it’s too likely that they drop one against the Broncos or Ravens, which then means they’ve got to win 4 of their 5 remaining division games. It’s tough sledding to hit 11 wins.