NCAAF Week 4 Picks
I’ll be the first to admit it. We did not do a very good job last week. In fact, we’re very much at the point where you should be paying attention to *who* is on a play, and not merely that we have one. Matt’s heating up and Danny’s right there with him, so you may want to focus on their plays this week. Though Andy is certain to right the ship soon. You can probably start fading my picks.
As a group, the boys went 23-29 on plays in Week 3, our first down week of the young season. Matt once again led the way, going 5-3. For the season, we’re now 79-71 overall, winning 52.67% of our bets. To stay ahead of the vig, you’ve got to win 53% of your plays (assuming -110 odds), so we’ve basically placed 150 bets for free. Not terrible, but we’re not making anybody money over here yet!
So on to Week 4!
No majority consensus plays this week, just a bunch of games where two of us like the same play. Last week’s majority consensus plays went 1-3. Yuck. These are now 2-4 on the season.
There are 11 plays that two of us are on this week. Last week, these plays went 2-2. These are now 5-3 on the season.
This week, we’re going back to the UCLA well. Al and Danny are taking UCLA +25.5, +22.5 at LSU, Danny and Matt are on Washington -10.5 vs Northwestern, Al and Danny are taking FSU -2.5 at home against Cal, Al and Matt are on the Houston/Cincinnati o47.5, 48.5, Danny and Matt are on Baylor +1 at Colorado, and Andy and Matt are both on the Utah/Oklahoma St o51.5.
Then Andy and Danny are on New Mexico St +14 at Sam Houston St, and Al and Matt are on the NMSU/SHSU o43.5, 44. Andy and Danny are teaming up again on Buffalo +14, and Andy and Matt are both laying the points with Florida -4.5 at Miss St.
Finally, Al and Danny are taking Michigan +6.5 vs USC in the big house.
For the full list of plays, we’ve got them listed out below.
Collectively, the group is up 0.82 units through Week 3. It is quite literally Danny and Matt’s great selections (+9.27u) being canceled out by Andy and Al’s (-9.18u).
Al
Season record: 19-22-1 (-4.73u)
UCLA +25.5, FSU -2.5, California/FSU o44.5, NC St +20.5, Coastal Carolina +3.5, Kansas St/BYU o47.5, Houston/Cincinnati o47.5, NMSU/SHSU o43.5, Utah St/Temple o51, Rice/Army o42, Michigan +6.5, USC/Michigan o45.5
Andy
Season record: 16-19-0 (-4.45u)
SJSU +14.5, Tennessee -7, Iowa -2.5, Iowa/Minnesota u36.5, Utah +3, Utah/Oklahoma St o51.5, NMSU +14, WKU +1, Buffalo +14, Florida -4.5, Texas -45
Chris
Season record: 3-2-0 (+0.73u)
None.
Danny
Season record: 23-16-0 (+4.91u)
UCLA +22.5, South Carolina -27.5, Illinois +8.5, Washington -10.5, FSU -2.5, Baylor +1, Tulsa +2.5, NMSU +14, Wyoming +9, Buffalo +14, Army -6, Kentucky -18.5, Iowa St -21, Michigan +6.5
Matt
Season record: 18-12-0 (+4.36u)
Tennessee/Oklahoma u57.5, Washington -10.5, Duke -14, Houston/Cincinnati o48.5, Baylor +1, Utah/Oklahoma St o51.5, Kansas +2.5, NMSU/SHSU o44, Florida -4.5
Let us know if you’ve got a play you feel especially good about!