Look, I’ve done a really good job giving out NFL plays over the past couple of years, but this year is giving me fits. I’m crying foul.
The NFL has been a jackpot for square bettors this year, the past 2-3 weeks especially. Favorites have won straight up like 80% of the time and overs have been hitting at a similar clip. John Q. Public loves to put his money on the favorites and on the overs, so your buddy who doesn’t know the first thing about sports betting but is outpacing you right now is talking so much shit. Your boy is down bad.
Luckily for me though, I’ve seen these weeks come and go, and every time these heavy public runs end, so we know it’s coming and soon. We also know that when you think you’ve got the NFL market figured out, it blows up in your face. So all of that is just one long preface to cover up another ugly week for me.
2-4 this past week on official plays. The hole gets deeper. I’m now 28-34 on NFL plays this year. I know the tide will turn soon, but I wouldn’t fault you for slow-playing these this week.
One a positive note, the 1H u24.5s went 4-0, moving that record to 9-4. Maybe there’s something there?
NFL Plays
I really want to play to BAL/MIA u51.5, but with Lamar Jackson back, it’s hard to say where this total should fall and with the way things have gone lately, I’ll wait to see if our luck has turned before betting a spot like this.
Here are my favorite plays:
Carolina +13.5
Tennessee +9.5
Atlanta +5.5
Pittsburgh +3.5
Washington +3
And here are the rest of the plays I’m officially on this week:
CHI/CIN u51.5
Cincinnati +2.5
Minnesota +8.5
CAR/GB u44.5
ATL/NE u45
IND/PIT u50.5
Denver +2
DEN/HOU o39.5
Las Vegas +3
JAX/LV o44.5
KC/BUF u52.5
Arizona +2.5
ARI/DAL u54.5
That’s 18 plays. I don’t expect you to follow me on all of ‘em, so I split out my favorite ones for you. Now, let’s look at some 1H unders.
1H Under 24.5s
CHI/CIN 1H u24.5 -105
IND/PIT 1H u24.5 -110
KC/BUF 1H u24.5 +105
ARI/DAL 1H u24.5 +120
This piece really made me think, and your analytical insight into these market dynamics, a theme I often find valuable in your previous writing, really shows why these current results can be so counterintuitive to our statistical modles.