It’s not been pretty for your boy on the NFL side. I’ve lost my mojo! But I’m gonna keep digging. Last week’s plays went 3-4. I hit on the 49ers, Panthers, and Bucs, but lost on the Jets, Ravens, Bengals and Bills.
That brings us to 14-22 on the season. Keep kickin’ the banana tree, as they say. Usually, when I hit a cold spell, I pivot to totals. “Let’s see if I have better luck attacking this from another angle!” I say, usually to mixed results. Well hell, let’s give it a shot here!
NFL Plays
Philly/NYG o40.5
Pittsburgh -5.5 - The Steelers should be touchdown favorites here.
Carolina +3 - The Panthers are so bad but this Cowboys defense just might make them look ordinary.
Baltimore? BALTIMORE? I’m not doing it. I’m NOT DOING IT! I’ve got this one closer to a 4 point game but I’m not betting on the damn Ravens until Lamar’s for sure back. I’ve got a hole to dig out of.
LA Rams/Baltimore o44.5 - Psych, just kidding. We’ll take the over.
Cincinnati +14 - Even in Lambeau, this is too rich. If the Lions couldn’t cover this number, I don’t think the Packers will. I’ve got it pegged closer to 9.
Detroit +2 - This one’s already dropped from 2.5 and I imagine it’s going to keep moving. Lions should be road favorites here. I love this play.
Detroit/KC u53 - Full disclosure I’ve been getting smoked on Detroit unders but I’m pivoting to totals so you’re getting some totals goddamnit!
Buffalo/Atlanta u50.5
1H Under 24.5s
One other thing I’ve been toying with is 1H unders of 24.5+. Eric Kuselias pitched this idea and I like it. The logic is that you need 4 TDs or 5+ scores to clear this number, so if a couple drives settle for FGs or you get a punt or two, you’re likely to be in the clear.
I’m going to watch these for a while and see how they pan out. I think it might make sense to juice up the line for lower totals rather than taking the under in games with high totals. For instance, the Seattle/Jacksonville total is 47.5. The 1H total will be 23.5, but you can pay a little extra juice to bump it to 24.5 at -125, -130, etc.
So these aren’t plays, but if you’re interested in playing these spots, here’s what I’ve got my eye on this week:
SEA/JAX u24.5 -135
DAL/CAR u24.5 -110
SF/TB u24.5 -130
CHI/WAS u24.5 -110