I was 9-11 going into last week. Already off to a less-than-stellar start this season. Then I proceeded to go 2-7 on the nine plays I gave out last week, bringing the season long tally to 11-18. Stinky!
Now, I had the caveat that if Daniels sits, get out of the Washington bet, and I acknowledged that the Tampa play felt bad, but they still count! By god, if you can read the play, I’m counting it.
Now, about this horrid start: I’ve got to say, sometimes gambling is most fun when you dig yourself a hole to climb out of. And buddy, I’d say that a seven game hole is plenty deep enough. I’ve dug myself out of deeper holes but I’d sure like to start climbing out of this one.
So with the full caveat being tail at your own risk, let’s see what’s on tap for Week 5.
NFL Plays
San Francisco +7 - The Rams were lucky to cover against the Colts, and unlucky not to have covered against the Eagles. I think the Rams win this one, but the 49ers have enough on defense to keep this one close.
New York Jets +2.5 - The Jets not only should have covered Monday night, they should’ve won outright. They can’t get out of their own way. Now they’re short dogs at home against the Cowboys’ porous defense? We’re getting stinky!
Carolina +1.5 - The Panthers blew the doors off the Falcons at home, then laid an egg in Foxboro. They’re back home against the Dolphins here.
Baltimore +1.5 - If I keep betting on the Ravens, they’re going to eventually hit. Houston’s backs are against the wall, but there’s a significant drop in talent compared to the teams the Ravens have lost to.
Tampa Bay +3.5 - The Bucs looked awful to start last week and then felt inevitable in the second half. They couldn’t pull off the comeback against the Eagles, but they’ll be able to make light work of this Seattle squad.
Cincinnati +10.5 - I’ll be honest, I’m not convinced I’ll even bet this one. The Lions are an ATS juggernaut. They’ve covered like 70% of their games since 2022. The Bengals can’t score. Their defense can’t stop anyone. The Lions might put up a hundred. But maybe, juuuuuuust maybe, the Bengals show a little spark at home and keep this one sort of close. I’d feel worse about this spread if we were getting more points to be honest.
Buffalo -8.5 - The Bills haven’t covered their big spreads so far this year, failing to cover twice as more than a touchdown favorites. And yet, here they are laying 8.5 and here I am betting it again. Everything about this one says it should be a close one. The Pats are moving the ball offensively, the Bills can’t stop anything on defense, it’s a division contest. Screw all that. Bills by 10.
I don’t want to know if you’re tailing these, but do let me know if you’re fading these plays. I want to know who my enemies are.
Good luck!