Al's NFL Week 16 Plays

6-9 last week (not nice).

Photo by Project 290 on Unsplash

Ok. I’ve been tweaking my spreadsheets throughout the season, and it seems like I’ve got the spreads dialed in fairly well. The totals are skewing too heavily toward the overs, so I’m going to need to work on those. I’ll give them out here in case you want something to measure your numbers against, but we won’t be counting them en masse anymore until I sort that out.

The other thing I look at most weeks is the zig zag theory. If you’re unfamiliar, you bet the teams that did not cover the previous week and who are playing teams that did cover the previous week. This has historically bore out profitable, and typically hits at a roughly 60% clip. This year, zig zags are 50-42, or 54%. Still profitable but barely (you’d be up about 3.5 units at -110 odds).

I usually factor in zig zags, ELO, yardage, and scoring data into my predictions. The spreads I’ve been tracking over the past five weeks are 27-12. This is obviously too small a sample size, but I think the zig zags are weighing down the performance on my spread plays as I’ve leaned toward the zig zags more heavily while tweaking.

All of that is to say that despite a down year, I think I’ve got my numbers in as good a spot as ever. We’ve got three weeks left in the regular season, so we’re approaching that point where each team’s want-to is probably more important than whether they covered the previous week or how they performed over the entire season. So the while I’d like to open things up and play a little more loose, I’ll probably still air on the side of caution here.

Full season plays are 76-79-4. That’s down about 9.84 units. Let’s try to get back to even before the playoffs.

NFL Plays

Seattle +1.5
Philly -6.5
Green Bay -1.5
Buffalo -10
LA Chargers +2.5
NY Jets +4.5
Carolina +3
Jacksonville +3
Pittsburgh +7
PIT/DET o51.5
New England +3
MIN/NYG o43.5

Here are some plays I’m passing on this week and why:

Kansas City -3.5 - Mahomes is out. That should throw all the numbers out the window. The Chiefs are still a much more talented side than the Titans, but we’re not in a spot to bet question mark spots here. I’ll just lay off.

Miami +1.5 - Newly eliminated from playoff contention, on a short week, Burrow back for Cincy. I know the Bengals are eliminated as well, but the season long numbers aren’t relevant here.

Indianapolis +6.5 - The Colts have a great defense, but the offense is an issue with Rivers at the helm. He played admirably last week, but this 49ers defense will eat him alive. I might bet San Fran instead.

Here are the totals my numbers like this week, just for confirmation purposes. Not official plays.

LAR/SEA o44.5
PHI/WAS o44.5
GB/CHI o46.5
LAC/DAL o49.5
CIN/MIA o50.5
TB/CAR o45.5