Last year, we started out hot on our NFL picks before eventually giving it all back. It was a frustrating year for seasoned bettors, as heavy favorites covered at an insane clip. The public feasted and the pros had a down year.
So what lies in store for 2025?
I think it’s very likely we see dogs covering these bigger spreads at a higher clip both because of a regression to the mean, but also because the bookmakers may be padding their lines a little bit on the games with larger spreads. I also think that the shift we’ve seen recently in going for it on 4th down means we’ll see more scoring by teams that can execute consistently. Those teams also happen to be the best teams in the league, often seeing large point spreads as favorites.
So will 8 point underdogs be a lock this season? I doubt it very much. But in general, I think we might see larger spreads in those matchups at square books, essentially daring the public to lay bigger spreads, even in games where there’s considerable value on the underdog, or those same books may push alternate lines more heavily.
I think also we’ll see the NFL adjust to these new daring 4th down offenses with defenses coming out on top a little more often and the teams that converted best maybe coming back down to earth a little bit.
Enough hypothesizing, let’s fire off these sure things…
NFL Plays
Las Vegas +3 - The Raiders are going to win outright. Take the FG and the free money.
Houston +3 - The Texans are going to win outright. Take the FG and the free money.
Jets +3 - The Jets are going to win outright. Take the FG and the free money (I feel less sure about the winning outright part, but I’ve clearly got a thing going here).
Carolina +3.5 - The Panthers were an obvious bet all season last year, numbers-wise, and they kept losing and failing to cover. It can’t happen again right? Plus, square bettors are going to avoid betting on the Panthers at all costs, and likely fade them all year. Let’s get in early at a ripe spot.
Tennessee +8.5 - I’m not a believer in the Broncos this year. I just don’t see it. And 8.5 points is a lot in the NFL, even if it is the top draft pick’s first start. Gimme Cam Ward to back door the Broncos in Mile High.
Baltimore/Buffalo 1H u25.5 - Sunday Night Football kicks off with a blockbuster, but I’m thinking we see a lot of the ground game early as these two teams feel each other out, before exploding for points in the second half.