Al's NFL Divisional Matchup Plays
Whoops! Missed you last week too!
So, I dropped the ball and forgot to give out plays for the Wild Card round. That’s on me. My bad.
Week 18 Recap
So let’s start by recapping the Week 18 plays I gave out here and tying a bow on the regular season. I gave out 20 plays in total, going 7-4 on spread plays and 5-4 on totals.
That puts the final regular season tally at 96-91-4. That’s about -3.64u on the season. Oh well. I found a good system around Week 11 for setting my own lines and those plays went 49-27 on spreads and 34-28 on totals. The totals part needs some work still, but 64%+ on spread plays helped us get back over .500 on the season. We’ll get ‘em next year.
Wild Card Recap
Not that this serves any purpose for you, the reader, but my plays this past week were:
LAR -10.5
LAR/CAR o46.5
GB +1.5*
GB/CHI o45.5
JAX +1.5
SF +4.5
NE -3.5
***HOU/PIT o38.5***
So a few things here.
One, there’s still a play available! I’m on the over tonight! Go bet it!
Two, you’ll notice an asterisk above next to the Green Bay play. That’s because despite my numbers showing value on the Packers, I actually bet this one the other way based on a few factors including recent performance, weather, and coaching. We’ll grade it as a loss here, but it wasn’t one for me!
We’re 4-3 at this point, with the total tonight still in play.
Also, my numbers on the other totals didn’t cross thresholds, but I had leans on the under in all three of those matchups and they all went under. Yay me.
And now, onto the divisional round…
Divisional Round Plays
BUF -1.5
BUF/DEN o46.5
SF/SEA o45.5
LAR -3.5
LAR/CHI o51.5
Lastly, we’re still waiting to see which team the Patriots host next week.
I’ve got the line against HOU as -11 with a total of 42.5, and the line against PIT as -13.5 with a total around 49.5. I doubt we see New England hang numbers this big, so my guess is I’ll likely be on the Patriots at home again.
As a reminder, I like more than a FG of cushion on my numbers, so against HOU, I’d take NE laying 7.5 or less, over 39, or under 46. For PIT, I’d take NE laying 10 or less, over 46, or under 53.
If the Patriots’ spread or total warrants a play as described above, I’ll be counting it.
Good luck!