I may have to lower my threshold for plays as it seems like there’s less value off of the numbers I’m seeing over the past few weeks.
Last week, I had no official plays and just four bonus plays. Those bonus plays went 1-3, bringing my overall record to 27-15 on official plays and with bonus plays now 14-13-2, that makes us 41-28-2 combined.
Since bonus plays are just official plays with lowered thresholds and they’re basically .500, I guess I should find another angle here. Let’s see if we can stay profitable!
Official Plays
Marshall +2.5 - I’ve got Marshall as a field goal favorite here, so lots of value on the Thundering Herd.
This section is getting a little sparse lately so let me throw in a few extra plays here, outside of my typical numbers plays…
Arkansas +7.5 - Texas A&M begins a three week road stretch here and it’s exceedingly difficult to cover three consecutive road games. So here’s the strategy: Fade them this week. If the bet hits, we’re good! If A&M covers, we’ll double up our bet size and fade them again next week.
Penn St +3.5 - I know it isn’t pretty. But if you’ve been following us around here for a while, you probably know we’re firm believers in the new manager bump in soccer. I like to play that same strategy across sports. I’ll take the points here, without James Franklin and without Drew Allar.
LSU +2.5 - This one’s in Vandy, but let’s not overthink it. LSU should win this one outright.
Bonus Plays
WKU -7.5 on Tuesday night
Washington +5.5
UConn +1.5
Here are some leans as well, to fill this thing out and give you some options for the considerable weekend slate this week. I won’t be tracking these, but consider it confirmation if you like one of these sides:
NMSU +10.5 on Tuesday night
UTEP -2.5 on Wednesday night
Louisville +13.5 on Friday night
UNC +10.5 on Friday night (not a chance in hell I’d bet this one)
I’ve got 30+ leans on Saturday for plays that didn’t make the cut as well, so I can share those if you like, but I’ll spare you the laundry list here. Just drop a comment below if you’re interested in those!