AFLW Picks
Grand Final Time!
So the women’s season has been a bit of a betting mixed bag. North Melbourne won last week, but failed to cover. Sometimes the numbers get squirrelly in the playoffs.
So on the season, we’re 30-26. That’s not good! We’re basically up around 1 unit. So let’s put that unit on a side in the final and call it a day.
Grand Final Matchup
I did correctly predict both sides here, where we have the North Melbourne Kangaroos and the Brisbane Lions facing off for all the marbles.
So the numbers say North Melbourne should win by 45.
These two sides played each other all the way back in Round 5 (in September), and North Melbourne won then by 29 in Brisbane.
This one’s in Melbourne and the Kangaroos are currently favored by just 23.5.
So add all that up, and what do you get? Let’s look at a recent, talented common opponent for context.
North just beat Melbourne by 10 at home. Brisbane just beat Melbourne away by 13 in the first round of the playoffs. Brisbane also beat Melbourne by 9 at home a few weeks before that. Outside of those games, Brisbane has been destroying opponents by 30+. Melbourne is the best test either of these sides can face, outside of themselves. So where do that leave us?
This line stinks. It’s making me want to bet Brisbane, especially when the numbers say to lay it with North and we just did that unsuccessfully. But this whole season has essentially been “bet big on North Melbourne and see what happens” so:
North Melbourne -23.5
If we win, we’ll have netted around 2 units on the season. If we lose, it’s a wash!
Good luck!