AFLW Picks
Only Three Matches Remain
The record for the season is 30-25, sitting right around 55%, which is grinding out a very small profit on these plays.
Last week, I didn’t have a play for you, but I had two leans on Carlton and Melbourne. Naturally, those teams covered though we don’t count those in the season tally.
I also said I might have a play on North Melbourne this week and, shocker, I do.
The Women’s league has only been in operation since the 2017 season and even then, they’ve only grown into the 99 matches played over the past two seasons. In that time, North Melbourne has dominated. While other teams won the first seven premierships as the league was growing, the North Melbourne side started in 2019 and took a few years to get their ducks in a row, but they finished as runner ups in 2023 and won it all last year. They’re looking to repeat and they haven’t lost since that 2023 Grand Final loss to Brisbane.
The Kangaroos are the clear favorites to lift the trophy this year.
That said, Melbourne and Brisbane are clearly the next best teams in the competition. So a lot of this season has just been to bet on the heavy favorites to cover the spread and it’s largely worked. I’d expect North Melbourne and Brisbane to face off in the Grand Final. So here are my plays:
North Melbourne -29.5
I’ve got this one closer to 45 points.
I’m not going to bet on the Brisbane spread because there’s not enough value on it, but you might consider it or maybe bet them on the moneyline. I have the Lions winning by around 7 and they’re favored by 11.5.
That’s it. Maybe we’ll see a play for the Grand Final. If not, thanks for tagging along this year!