AFL Szn

Time to put anotha' shrimp on the bahbie!

Photo by ROMAIN TERPREAU on Unsplash

If you tailed the plays this past week, you should’ve come out slightly ahead with a 3-3 record. We came real close to having a solid week but our best play, Hawthorn -56.5, came up just short. Thanks to Carlton, our ML dog, doing their job and winning outright though, you would be about 0.37u up.

On the season, I’m 5-3 on tier 1 plays, 4-8 on tier 2 plays, 11-7 on tier 3 plays, and 7-7 on ML plays, most of those on plus money underdogs.

There’s another part of these lines I’m betting that hasn’t made it into these posts yet though, and that’s totals. The reason has been two fold: 1. they were slow to start the season, and 2. the books usually don’t post totals this early in the week and I don’t want to have that hold up our best value plays on the spread. But my totals are now 5-1 since I removed the preseason scores for projection. We may be onto something here. And it just so happens that we’ve got some early totals out this week!

In total this week, there’s 1 tier 1 play, 3 tier 2 plays, 3 tier 3 plays, 3 moneyline plays including two underdogs, 3 overs, 1 under and a partridge in a pear tree. Let’s get to it.

Tier 1 Picks (5-3)

Gold Coast +10.5 at Brisbane

Tier 2 Picks (4-8)

Fremantle -4.5 at St. Kilda

Carlton +12.5 at Adelaide

Hawthorn -49.5 vs Richmond

Tier 3 Picks (11-7)

Collingwood -8.5 vs Geelong

Melbourne -15.5 at West Coast

Sydney +9.5 vs GWS

Moneyline Picks (7-7)

Fremantle -140

Carlton +155

Gold Coast +145

Totals (15-12)

Essendon/North Melbourne over 182.5

St. Kilda/Fremantle over 175.5

Western/Port Adelaide under 170.5

Collingwood/Geelong over 172.5

Regarding these plays, I don’t like Sydney and I don’t like Gold Coast. Sydney is beat up and they always get the best effort from GWS (Greater Western Sydney) in this rivalry match. GWS is also beat up, but trending toward getting healthy. Sydney is especially good at home, but they have a ton of talent on their injury list at the moment. I think it makes sense to leave this one off your bet slip if you’re worried about losing.

As for Gold Coast, this is another rivalry matchup between a couple of Queensland sides. Gold Coast has, for its entire existence, been Brisbane’s little brother. The head to head matchups are often lopsided. Brisbane are the defending champs and while Gold Coast is turning a corner, it’s hard to see them go into the Gabba and steal one from the Lions. I’ll be betting it, but just fair warning here!