The last few years, my numbers have betrayed me when the AFL postseason began. This year, there’s no stopping the money printing machine.
After hitting 61.9% of plays in during the season, I went out and gave you 5 official postseason plays. Those plays went 4-1. You’re welcome.
On top of that, I started measuring performance in AFLW, the sport’s women’s league. I gave you 6 plays there just to dabble on, and despite Essendon losing outright, costing us their spread bet and their ML bet, we still went 4-2.
Now, you’ll have to wait for the college football and NFL picks posts to see exactly how I fared there, but success this past weekend definitely carried over into the American form of football.
8-3 when we’re supposed to be slowing down? It’s all gas no brakes around here.
AFL Plays of the Week
I’m playing these all small this week because the numbers aren’t strong. There’s virtually no value on these spreads and you may remember I don’t like betting playoff overs, but with just two matches this week and plenty of cash in our pockets, I should at least give you the leans!
Adelaide -2.5
Adelaide/Hawthorn o165.5
Gold Coast +9.5
Brisbane/Gold Coast o168.5
Adelaide and Hawthorn are a couple of throwback teams playing modern footy and I expect the pressure to be up in this one. Which team tires first? It looks like the Crows will prevail here by around a score.
Brisbane and Gold Coast are the two franchises located on Australia’s Gold Coast in Queensland. Having another QClash as a Semi-final matchup is a fantastic trick of the standings. That should be a really fun match where Brisbane has dominated the series. Can Gold Coast keep their Cinderella season going? My numbers say no, but they keep it close.
Just looking at the spreads and totals, and given the quality of the sides playing, the only play I’d agree with at first glance is the Adelaide/Hawthorn over. I think if I were blindly betting, I’d have taken the other side for the three other bets. This Hawthorn side is scrappy as hell and despite the Suns’ feel good story, the Lions are the much better (and deeper) side on paper.
So now that I’ve sufficiently destroyed any confidence you may have in backing my plays, you are now free to bet them as you please!
PSA: YOU CAN WATCH THESE GAMES!!!
If you find yourself awake early Friday or Saturday morning, I really encourage you to find FS1 or FS2 on your tv to watch these games. The elimination finals this past weekend were a couple of the best games I’ve watched over the past several seasons. They kick off around 5:30am and finish around 8-8:30am Eastern time, so it makes for a perfect setting for enjoying a cup of coffee before work or College Gameday starts.
These games are also available via Fubo and Sling, if those are more your speed.
AFLW Plays of the Week
And just in case our playoff footy bets don’t hit, here are some AFLW insurance plays.
Sydney -25.5
Melbourne -15.5
North Melbourne -13.5
West Coast +1.5
Hawthorn +2.5
Essendon -9.5
I’m playing full units on the first four plays and half units on the last two.
Good luck!