AFL Round 9
4-2 last week
Back in the black last week, going 4-2. We hit on Collingwood, the Adelaide/Port under, St. Kilda, and the Sydney/Melbourne over. We lost on Freo and the West Coast/Richmond under. I gave the caveat that Western could cover against Freo easily if they got healthy, and they did, but I grade the plays as I give them! Hopefully you checked the injury report on that one.
We’re at 16-16 on the season, which is losing the vig. So we’re down about 2.08 units. Let’s see if we can get above water this week.
AFL Plays of the Week
Fremantle -3.5 vs Hawthorn
Port Adelaide +1.5 vs Western
Brisbane/Carlton o185.5
North Melbourne +27.5 vs Sydney
North Melbourne/Sydney u192.5
Essendon +44.5 at GWS
Carlton +42.5 at Brisbane*
St. Kilda +15.5 at Gold Coast*
*0.5 unit plays
8 plays, 7 units.
My Explanations
Freo is laying points at home against arguably the best team in the league? Smells a little fishy. But the Dockers are playing great footy right now, and Hawthorn has to travel across country for this one, plus they’ve got room enough at the top of the ladder to let this one slip past them.
Port is sneakily playing really sound footy. They’re one of the best defensive teams right now, hosting a Bulldogs side that’s struggled recently, dropping four straight.
I like Carlton to hang around in this one (see more below), and while Brisbane is capable of carrying the lion’s share of this total, if Carlton can pitch in, it should be a breeze.
While the Swans are probably the only team you could argue is better than Hawthorn, they just gave up a ton of points to Melbourne. Their offense is humming, but they’re on the road for this one against a North side that’s eager to show they belong in the playoff discussion. No better chance than this.
I’m pairing this with the under. The Swans have been crushing overs this year, so when the numbers get this high, I’ll take the under and hope for one slow quarter or some unpleasant weather to keep things under the bloated total here.
The Giants’ offense has been Jekyll and Hyde this year, going over 100 three times, but under 70 four times. While Essendon has given up almost 400 points their last three matches, they ought to be able to keep this one close if GWS can’t convert their opportunities.
Lastly, I’ve got a couple of fliers on Carlton and St. Kilda. They’re playing good sides on the road, which is a recipe for disaster, but my numbers show value on the dogs here.
Just For Fun Plays
If I was throwing out some moneyline plays this week, I’d consider betting Fremantle -130, Port Adelaide -110, and St. Kilda +165.
I also love to take my 4 or 5 best plays and put them in a round robin. If you’re unfamiliar with round robins, it’s essentially a 2-leg box bet, where you parlay each of the 4 or 5 plays by twos. So for this one, I’d take the 4 spread plays: Freo, Port, North, and Essendon, and parlay Freo with Port, Freo with North, Freo with Essendon, Port with North, Port with Essendon, and North with Essendon. So six 2-leg parlays in all combinations.
When I have five plays, I’ll do it with 3-leg parlays as well. For -110 or -115 bets, you have to hit 3/4 or 3/5 legs to come out ahead. Another great way to do round robins is with plus money plays. That way, it requires fewer legs to get net-positive.
Give it a try if you like!