AFL Round 9

Time to rebound!

Alright, that was an ugly week.

Losses just about all around. Serves me right for expanding my picks.

Tiered picks went 3-4, which isn’t terrible, but that’s basically where the wins stopped. 0-3 on ML plays and totals went 1-3. A week to forget, to be sure!

I think I’m officially fading tier 2 plays, so I’m going to do this a little bit differently going forward. First, I’m going to lay out the picks my sheet spits out. Then, I’m going to give the plays I’m taking. I’ll throw in a ML parlay at the end too, just to spice things up!

Tier 1 Picks (5-4)

None.

Tier 2 Picks (5-10)

Richmond -11.5 vs West Coast

Tier 3 Picks (13-8)

Western -0.5 at Gold Coast
Brisbane -35.5 at North Melbourne

Moneyline Picks (7-10)

Collingwood +100
Richmond -195

Totals (16-15)

Essendon/Sydney o172.5
Port Adelaide/Adelaide o176.5
North Melbourne/Brisbane o176.5

My Take

I’m definitely sticking with Brisbane -35.5 at North Melbourne. The Kangaroos have yet to get their act together despite a talented roster. Meanwhile the Lions continue to roll against good competition and they’re getting talented players back from injury. I’m adding in their team total (TT) over 105.5 as well.

For the totals, I’ll play these two small, but I’ll add in the Gold Coast/Western o182.5. This is at a lesser used venue, TIO Stadium, that Gold Coast has hosted a couple of matches at each of the past few years. In those matchups, Gold Coast has averaged better than 118 points, giving up less than 70 per match while going 6-0. And that’s over seasons where the team hasn’t performed as well as they have this year. I’m going to buck the system on this one. I’m taking Gold Coast +0.5, Gold Coast TT o90.5, and the full game o182.5.

Another play I’m taking is Carlton -7.5 at St. Kilda. The Blues are off to a slow start but they’re a lot better than this St. Kilda squad who are coming off a nice win but have lost handily to top competition. It’s time for Carlton to start righting the ship.

Here are my plays:

Brisbane -35.5 at North Melbourne
Brisbane TT o105.5
North Melbourne/Brisbane o176.5
Essendon/Sydney o172.5
Port Adelaide/Adelaide o176.5
Gold Coast +0.5 vs Western
Gold Coast TT o90.5
Gold Coast/Western o182.5
Carlton -7.5 at St. Kilda

HOT! As a treat, you get a stone cold ML parlay lock at +140:
Richmond -195, Carlton -170

HOTTER! Step this one up to +369 by adding:
Gold Coast -105

HOTTEST! Step it up again to +838 by adding:
Collingwood +100

So there you go. Three ML parlays that are sure to hit if you’re brave enough to follow!