AFL Round 8
The slide continues! Weee!
2-4 this past week.
That puts us at 12-14 and around 3.56u in the red. We’ll keep trying though!
The good news is I like a bunch of home teams this week. Hopefully that works in our favor and we string together some Ws.
AFL Plays of the Week
Collingwood +21.5 vs Hawthorn
Fremantle -21.5 at Western*
Adelaide/Port Adelaide u177.5
West Coast/Richmond u184.5
St. Kilda -14.5 at Carlton
Sydney/Melbourne o186.5
My Explanations
Collingwood’s been all over the place this year and Hawthorn is arguably the best team in the AFL this year, but this is a big rivalry and 21.5 is a lot of points for a Collingwood side whose bread and butter has been winning tight games late over the past few years.
The Bulldogs have a great roster. They’re absolutely gutted by injuries though. If they’re healthy, this feels like one they can win easily. But look at these numbers over the last three weeks: 64, 56, and 60. That’s how many points they’ve scored. 104, 131, 126. That’s how many points they’ve allowed. The thing to watch is the injury report. I’ll probably scratch this bet if Western gets three or more guys back this week.
The Showdown. Always a classic. Adelaide has won five of the last six Showdowns, but Port is in better form right now. The line’s too tight to call, so I’ll take the under here.
West Coast and Richmond are the two worst defenses in the league, but they’re also two of the worst offenses. We’re hoping for poor kicking for this high total.
Carlton stinks.
Sydney can score and my numbers say bet Melbourne +31.5, but it seems like the over’s just as smart a play here if you like Melbourne to hang with the high-scoring Swans.
Good luck!