AFL Round 7
Hubris! She bites!
I mentioned last week how in my several years of doing this, I’ve had tons of rounds where I lost money, but they’re typically a 5-5 week or a 3-4 week where you’re just losing one unit or just the juice. It’s the weeks where we go 9-2 that get us firmly net positive.
Well, I called upon the gambling gods and they bit. 2-6. It stinks!
Sure, a couple bad breaks, but mostly just misses. It happens sometimes! I probably shouldn’t invoke it. Whatcha gonna do?
That knocks out all our profit for the season and stacks us at 10-10 on the year. That puts us down about 1.3 units.
Onward and upward.
AFL Plays of the Week
Collingwood -17.5 at Essendon
Fremantle -36.5 vs Carlton
Fremantle/Carlton u178.5
West Coast +39.5 at St. Kilda
Adelaide +19.5 at Brisbane
North Melbourne +16.5 at GWS
My numbers are screaming to take Western at home against Sydney, but Western literally had their three best players go down with injuries last week, so I’m going to lay off that one here.
The line is not out for the Richmond/Melbourne match, but that should have Melbourne favored by 30-40 points.
Carlton is in a tailspin and Fremantle is returning home for this one, on the West Coast where they typically play better. These two teams have four common opponents already, where Fremantle has gone 4-0 with an average margin of victory of 29 points and Carlton has gone 1-3 with and average margin of -13 plus they’re coming off a heartbreaking loss to their biggest rival. Bad spot for the Blues.
We’re betting on a couple of sides that are trending down in West Coast and Adelaide. We’re buying low, looking for them to cover their margins. Adelaide is averaging less than 10 point margins. The two matches they’ve played where the margin exceeded 8 points were wins.
Let’s get back in the black!