AFL Round 6
3-2 last week.
We followed up a 5-2 record in Round 4 with a 3-2 record in Round 5. Most everywhere I look, I get odds at -115. Sometimes you get -110, but for the most part, most American books are juicing these odds so they don’t have to put effort into validating the lines. That means a win pays $0.87 on the dollar.
Overall, we’re 8-4 and up 2.96 units. I’ll track this all season long, and hopefully you can find better odds where you are.
I’m not going to sit here and tell you to bet these heavily. That’s a recipe for disaster and I don’t want to jinx myself. BUT! Without looking too deeply into my history, I’m pretty sure there are rarely weeks where my plays lose 2+ units. Usually, we’re right around +/- one unit, and there is occasionally a round or two where the plays go like 9-2 and we’re up big. So just a little food for thought based on the results I’ve seen over the past five-ish years I’ve been betting on Aussie Rules.
Outside of official plays, I suggested three spread plays that went 1-2, and two totals that both hit. I also suggested three ML plays that all lost. Whatcha gonna do?
I also suggested taking the unders in the last two matches at the Adelaide Oval, since the AFL was playing five games in 4 days on the same field. Both of those hit as well.
Here are this week’s plays.
AFL Plays of the Week
Western +11.5 at Geelong
Geelong/Western o187.5
GWS +26.5 at Sydney
Gold Coast/Essendon u189.5
Port Adelaide +40.5
Adelaide -15.5 vs St. Kilda
West Coast +43.5 vs Fremantle
West Coast/Fremantle u185.5
My favorite play of the week is Adelaide -15.5.
I have conflicting indicators on the Gold Coast/Essendon match, so I’ll stick with the total play there. Let me know if you’re tailing!