AFL Round 24
Last round before the postseason begins!
5-2 last week bringing the ELO plays to a total of 48-30, or 61.5%. YOU’RE WELCOME.
The ML parlay lock of the week hit as did the +496 option which included the Brisbane and Adelaide MLs. Good week. Let’s see if we can finish strong, shall we?
AFL Plays of the Week
Carlton -26.5 at Essendon
Essendon/Carlton u167.5
Collingwood -19.5 vs Melbourne
Sydney -29.5 at West Coast
Fremantle +22.5 at Western
Hawthorn +9.5 at Brisbane
There are some plays I like that I’m holding back on here because I’m not sure how teams that have secured their playoff spots are going to play this week. Sure, they’ll likely win, but will they clear 30 point or 60 point spreads? Better to hold our cash than risk it on the top teams.
I hate betting on Carlton here, but it’s what the numbers say. Adding the under along with it as these are two bad offenses.
I think Collingwood has to go into the postseason on a positive note, so we’ll likely see them at their best this week, whatever that looks like.
Sydney will finish on a high note. That one feels really good.
Western vs. Fremantle will most likely be a match for the final playoff spot and while I expect Western to win, I think the Dockers keep it closer than this 22.5 point spread.
Lastly, I like Hawthorn to beat Brisbane. Brisbane got their big win last week to secure a playoff spot and they’re sitting higher on the ladder than they deserve to be. Hawthorn has been playing playoff footy for weeks now. This should be a good one too.
P.S. - Gold Coast plays Essendon next Wednesday in a makeup match from the opening round. I expect them to be heavily favored, but the line isn’t out yet and it likely won’t be before these matches kick off, but I’ll probably bet on Gold Coast to cover, especially if they screw things up against Port Adelaide this weekend.
ML Parlay Lock of the Week
There are some juicy spots that are probably worth a roll of the dice, but before we get to those, let’s secure another ML parlay lock:
3 leg parlay at -117:
Collingwood -325, Sydney -550, GWS -500
Step up to +195:
Carlton -425, Western -350
If you want to roll the dice…
Step up to +2551:
Hawthorn +140, Port Adelaide +275
The smarter move is to just bet these separate for smaller amounts, but who am I to tell you how to live?!
Thanks for following along this season!