4-2 on plays last week, plus the first step ML parlay lock of the week hit. Ho-hum.
I CAN’T STOP HANDING OUT WINNERS!
Last week, I tallied up all my plays I’ve given out here since I introduced the ELO ratings plays in Round 11. Those plays have gone 39-26, so tagging on the 4-2 week, that’s now 43-28 over the past 12 weeks. Things get a little tougher to sort out late in the season, but we’ll see if we can keep things running.
As a note, FS1 tends to air some of the late season AFL matches late at night. I think they might be airing the Thursday Night Footy and Friday Night Footy matches this week, which air on Thursday and Friday mornings here in the US. Those games bounce off around 5:30 and 6:30 on those days, east coast time, so they wrap up right around 8 or 8:30 in the morning as you’re getting ready for work or school. Check it out!
Here’s another important note as the playoffs approach, and I’ve mentioned this before: 8 of the past 12 champions have won at least four of their last five matches leading into the playoffs. The last two champions have bucked this trend, but there may still be some juice to this trend. That said, if you’re looking for futures bets on the champion, you may want to consider fading Collingwood and Brisbane. Then again, those are your last two champions who bucked this trend. Lot of games left to play, so we can re-evaluate after Round 24.
AFL Plays of the Week
St. Kilda -25.5 at Essendon
St. Kilda/Essendon u169.5
Brisbane +3.5 at Fremantle
Gold Coast -12.5 vs GWS
North Melbourne -10.5 vs Richmond
Geelong -17.5 at Sydney
Western -70.5 vs West Coast
St. Kilda’s played really good footy lately and Essendon can’t consistently get the ball in scoring position. That’s why I’m tacking on the under as well.
Fremantle has won 5 in a row and 11 of 12 but there are troubling signs. They’re among the worst in the league at generating scoring opportunities and most of their opponents over this run have been out of the running for the postseason and those that weren’t were experiencing a backward slide themselves. They’re not a bad team, but it feels like the shoe has got to drop and Brisbane needs some room to breathe on the ladder.
GWS is beat up and need a win to stay inside the top 8 and qualify for playoffs, but the Gold Coast Suns just seem to keep getting better. Plus, the Suns have a game in hand after their Opening Round clash with Essendon was canceled due to weather. They’ll be playing two matches next week and with 12 points up for grabs, they’ve got their eye on a spot in the top 4, securing two playoff games, the first in team history.
North Melbourne and Richmond are both bad with nothing to play for. The Roos at least have some talent despite the fact that they largely haven’t shown up this season. It’s worth laying a small line here. I’ll also take the under in this one whenever it comes out.
Sydney’s tough to beat at home but they’ll simply be outclassed by a Geelong side that seems to be flying a little too under the radar. This is an exceptional squad that can hang 100 on any opponent. The Swans are just in the way.
Finally, the Bulldogs are currently outside of the 8 but they’ve got the easiest schedule down the stretch. And they’ll need to win these games despite having plenty of cushion in percentage, the tie breaking ratio of points scored and points allowed.
ML Parlay Lock of the Week
These have been fun even if we haven’t made any money on them! The idea is to give you a first step lock and then that allows us essentially free bets on longshots. Here’s what’s on tap this week:
3 leg parlay at +113:
St. Kilda -425, Hawthorn -375, Geelong -275
Step up to +716:
Gold Coast -200, Port Adelaide +155
OR
Step up to +496:
Adelaide -275, Brisbane +105
What might make more sense is simply adding the two dogs on individually to the first step above, but hey, let’s go crazy. Choose your own adventure!