Last week we went 4-3 again, resulting in another 0.6u or so of profit. Since Round 11 when I started utilizing ELO, my plays of the week have gone 39-26 which is exactly 60%. 60% is a great benchmark to hit in sports betting, so if I’ve helped you earn a little green this Summer, let me know! If you’ve tailed religiously, you should be up about 9.5u.
That said, this feels like a bit of a tough week. Another week of all favorites, including some large spreads. I’m going to take some heavy favorites here, but that can be a minefield. So just fair warning before diving in headfirst.
AFL Plays of the Week
Geelong -67.5 vs Essendon
Richmond/St. Kilda u161.5
Carlton/Gold Coast u171.5
GWS - 49.5 vs North Melbourne
Melbourne/Western o175.5
Adelaide -61.5 at West Coast
Some of these teams are starting to break the scale. I’ve got West Coast finishing with negative points, for instance. I’ve also got Geelong winning by 250 points in one metric and Adelaide winning by 200 in another. These are the kinds of things that happen when the best offenses play the worst defenses I guess.
The ML Parlays of the Week have not had much success this season. It’s something to bet for fun, so I’ll continue to include them, but remember, we’re betting beer money on these. Nothing crazy.
ML Parlay Lock of the Week
We’ve got six favorites that have reasonable ML odds this week. Let’s see if we can rank these by mostly likely to win and come out with a profit.
3 leg parlay at -103:
St.Kilda -350, Gold Coast -475, Western -375
Step up to +382:
Collingwood -150, Brisbane -450, Fremantle -500