Last week our picks went 4-3, missing two plays by a kick. Hey, it happens. There have been plenty of matches that we’ve won on the final kick after the siren or have held on to cover by the hook. This week was a doozy though.
Carlton kicked the final goal to spoil our spread bet on Hawthorn. Fremantle gave up 3 goals in the last five minutes to blow their cover. But nothing compares to how Melbourne blew their cover.
The Demons were up by 46 points after three quarters, only to turn around and allow the biggest comeback in the sport’s recorded history, losing on the final kick after the siren, 96-90. While we didn’t bet Melbourne on the spread, they were in our ML parlay. Good thing Brisbane blew that up earlier in the week, otherwise that’s the kind of situation you don’t want to find yourself rooting against!
AFL Plays of the Week
GWS +11.5 at Western
Western/GWS o174.5
Gold Coast/Richmond u167.5
Essendon +50.5 at Sydney
Sydney/Essendon u161.5
Collingwood -8.5 vs Brisbane
Fremantle -31.5 vs Carlton
GWS should be favored in this one and yet somehow they’re almost two goal underdogs. If Western is going to win this one, they’re going to have to score, so adding in the over here means we’re unlikely to lose both bets.
Gold Coast’s head coach is in his first season after departing Richmond, where he won three premierships in 4 years before their best talent aged out. Richmond may feel a little scorned in this one, but Gold Coast (who has never made the playoffs) is on the playoff bubble with a spot in the eight in sight. High drama.
Why the hell is Sydney laying 50+ points? They’re bad! Essendon is also bad. But two bad teams a blowout does not make. Similar to the Western/GWS logic above, I’m taking the points and the under here. So long as Essendon scores 56, we can’t lose both.
Collingwood and Brisbane could be a preview of the Grand Final and amidst the playoff push, should be a close one. But I think Collingwood is the more talented and deeper side. Plus, they lost two of their last three and can’t afford to drop another one so close to the postseason.
Lastly, I’m laying the points with Fremantle. Carlton isn’t good, they’re coming off a brutal slate where they’ve played most of the top sides, and they travel across the country for this one. Meanwhile, the Dockers aren’t quite comfortable yet, sitting in 7th on the ladder. They need to win this one for a little playoff padding.
One last note: the totals aren’t out yet for the Geelong/Port Adelaide match or the Fremantle/Carlton match, but I expect to take the over and the under, respectively.
ML Parlay Lock of the Week
We didn’t have a very good opportunity last week, but this week could get juicy. Every home team is favored and there are typically around 3 road wins each week. Let’s see if we can pick our spots well.
For the first step, let’s knock out the home teams that should win.
2 leg parlay at -123:
Fremantle -650, Collingwood -175
Step up to +344:
GWS +145
Step up to +1122:
Hawthorn +175
OR…
Step up to +1499:
North Melbourne +260
I think at least two of the following underdogs win outright:
GWS +145
Hawthorn +175
North Melbourne +260
Essendon +1100