Last week I didn’t have a chance to get my plays up since the boys all got together for our annual golf trip. It’s fine too, because my plays went 4-4. I saved you some vig!
So here’s where we’re at this week. We’re officially into the run toward the playoffs. I forget the specifics but I believe every team that has won the last several Premierships has won all of their last 5 matches leading into the postseason. So this is the time when the best teams need to be hitting their stride and playing their best ball.
It’s Nice At The Top
As things stand, those teams are Collingwood, Brisbane, Adelaide, Geelong, and Hawthorn. GWS also deserves a shoutout as they’re on quite a tear, having already rattled off five straight wins.
Collingwood has also dropped two in a row for the first time all season. They’ve got to get their act together in the run-up to the playoffs here.
Bad Vibes At The Bottom
On the other end of the ladder, you’ve got plenty of teams who are out of the picture and playing bad ball. West Coast has the worst record in the league and North Melbourne, Richmond, St. Kilda, Essendon and Melbourne may be ready to pack things up for the year. Even Carlton and Port Adelaide haven’t really got a chance either. This can usually add some volatility into the outcomes, since some teams will play hard and some, understandably, will not.
Without any insight inside the buildings, I’d venture to guess we still see competitive play from Essendon, Richmond, and maybe St. Kilda since they’ve got some talented youth on their sides.
That’s enough of that though. Here are some plays.
AFL Plays of the Week
Hawthorn -29.5 vs Carlton
Western -52.5 at Essendon
GWS -9.5 vs Sydney
Fremantle -50.5 vs West Coast
Geelong -41.5 at North Melbourne
Adelaide -29.5 vs Port Adelaide
Collingwood -44.5 vs Richmond
I love Collingwood to cover, as well as Fremantle and Geelong. Gonna parlay those spread plays also. Or maybe a round robin? Idk, do as you like. Those are good teams, needing to play in good form, against bad teams. Not a week for dogs I guess.
I usually find laying large spreads is a square move, but I’ve got each of those three teams I just mentioned winning by 100+ this week. There are a lot of points between these spreads and 100.
ML Parlay Lock of the Week
There’s not much in the way of good value on the moneyline this week, so I’ll give out one three-leg parlay at +345:
GWS -175, Brisbane -160, Melbourne -135
Feel free to round robin this instead if you don’t like playing three-leggers.
Ok great! Let’s do it again next week!