I gave out 7 straight up plays. They started 6-0, before Fremantle came up a kick short of covering against Sydney. I’ll take it!
And the ML parlay lock of the week (-103) also hit, as well as the second step (+192). The third step (+981) came up short with the Fremantle loss, but all in, that amounts to a roughly +5.89u week. That earns a big hell ya from me.
Here are this week’s plays.
AFL Plays of the Week
Brisbane -26.5 at Carlton
Collingwood -4.5 at Gold Coast
Geelong -4.5 at GWS
Essendon -15.5 at Richmond
Richmond/Essendon u163.5
Hawthorn +0.5 at Fremantle
North Melbourne +27.5 at Melbourne
Sydney -7.5 at St. Kilda
There are a couple of matchups that look a lot closer to the spread when you only look at the past 10 matches, or the past 5 matches. Geelong and Essendon become less valuable plays that way, but still worth a crack. Alternatively, I’ve decided not to play Adelaide +7.5 at Western because Western has come on strong lately. If you felt like betting Adelaide here though, I’d support it.
Additionally, I see value on the under in the Richmond/Essendon matchup. I have that pegged closer to 148. Totals are a bit of a mixed bag though, so approach with caution.
The plays I like the most of the above are Sydney -7.5 and North Melbourne +27.5. Sydney is a much better side than they’ve shown this year and they are fully capable of making light work of a middling side like St. Kilda.
North Melbourne, on the other hand, have been perennial bottom feeders who have started to play with some punch in recent weeks. Melbourne won the Premiership just four years ago and maintain much of the same roster, but the Demons have been plain bad this year. They’ve been unable to capture their mojo and have been especially bad defensively. I like the Kangaroos to keep it close.
ML Parlay Lock of the Week
Let’s see if we can keep this party going…
2 leg parlay at -106:
Brisbane -450, Sydney -170
Step up to +711:
Essendon -250, Geelong -140, Collingwood -135