Last week the spread plays went 4-3. The ML parlay lock of the week hit (+104), as did the first step up (+172), but we missed out on the +499 second step with Carlton getting blown out against Port Adelaide. Oh well. Still a good week! That’s +0.64u on the spread plays, and then you should have profited all of the +172 step up parlay plus a little bit of the base parlay lock. All told, that’s up around 2 units! Yay! Let’s do it again!
One thing I’ve noticed in backchecking the entire season is it seems like the projected margins expand as the disparity between teams continues to grow. In a league with a lot of parity, it might not matter as much, but I’m starting to think that using a trailing ELO instead of the full season ELO might be the more accurate way to gauge competition and predict spreads. For example, the results from the first few weeks of the season aren’t going to be as useful in Round 17 as they are in Round 8.
Anyway, that’s my problem to sort out. Here are some more winners.
AFL Plays of the Week
Collingwood -27.5
GWS -22.5
Gold Coast -22.5
Geelong -58.5
Hawthorn -18.5
Fremantle +8.5
Carlton TT u66.5*
I’m combining the full season ELO with a trailing ELO here, hoping to eliminate some overinflated odds. For example, the full season ELO indicates that Western -42.5, Brisbane -26.5, and Adelaide -25.5 are easy plays, but the trailing ELO says those are very fair lines, pegging them at -41.5, -28.5, and -27.5 respectively.
Now, the ELO says Fremantle is a play on the ML and the line is actually moving the other way. So feel free to take a little shot at the currently +145 odds there.
*NOTE: Technically, I like the u160.5 for the full match, because Carlton has had one of the best defenses all season and their offense has been terrible. But recently, they’ve been a mess defensively as well. This is a rivalry game, so maybe they right the ship and this one could sail over the 160.5. I have it pegged at about 148. I’m also on Collingwood by a decent margin here, so rather than laying the points with a heavy favorite AND taking the under, I’m instead settling on taking the Carlton team total under. You may want to opt for laying off this one or look for live opportunities while you’re making coffee Friday morning.
ML Parlay Lock of the Week
Ok let’s see if we can start a run here.
3 leg parlay at -103:
Western -950, Gold Coast -325, Hawthorn -275
Step up to +192:
Collingwood -500, Brisbane -425
Step up to +981: Real Freak Edition
GWS -425, Fremantle +145, Adelaide -450