I’ve been sharing my AFL plays with you all season, with middling success. But five weeks ago, I started utilizing ELO ratings to gauge spreads and make bets according to those outputs, so I thought it would be a good time to take a moment and assess how it has played out.
All Plays
What I’ve done so far is sort through the ratings and projected spreads and given you the best options based on the numbers. However, in gauging the ELO overall performance, I think it’s worth noting how the numbers shake out for all plays, not just the ones I’ve given out. And so, there have been 38 matches since that initial post and the side that the ELO adjusted spread favors has covered 25 times.
That’s good for a 65.7% clip and a net gain of approximately +9.75 units, assuming -110 odds. Just to put that in its proper context, that’s very good. Many professional gamblers are thrilled to find a long term edge of 5% or more. We’re sitting at 15%+. Now, there has only been 38 contests to weigh this against, but generally speaking, I think this is a strong method.
SLP Plays
Now, a quick evaluation of the plays I’ve given out here, which includes the curated best plays against the spread each week, as well as some totals, and ML parlays.
Spreads: 15-8
Totals: 4-2
I’ve pointed out a few other plays to target if you were willing, but to keep this simple, these are just the official plays I’ve given out. I think the extra plays are about 4-4 if you care.
So that’s 19-10 for a 65.5% clip and +7.29 units, with the worst week being 2-2. I’ll take 2-2 as a floor all day. Hopefully, we can get back on track with more big winning weeks soon.
ML Parlays
The last part of the plays I give out each week is the ML parlay lock plus additional steps. These are meant to be bet such that the parlay lock covers any losses on the steps. That way, so long as we win our lock, we can only come out ahead. But you’re welcome to bet them however you like.
Baseline ML parlays: 1-4
Total Individual ML Record: 15-7
Well that doesn’t feel right. So the legs in the ML locks are 7-4, which means all the step up ML legs have gone 8-3. I’m going to stick with the format, but maybe just pick and choose which legs to roll with or bet them individually.
Alright, let’s win some money this week.
AFL Plays of the Week
Carlton +5.5 at Port Adelaide
Western -8.5 at Sydney
Gold Coast -17.5 vs Melbourne
Hawthorn -32.5 vs North Melbourne
Collingwood -60.5 vs West Coast
Adelaide -37.5 at Richmond
Fremantle -22.5 vs St. Kilda
That’s plays in all seven matches, some which will be blowouts.
ML Parlay Lock of the Week
Fingers crossed…
2 leg parlay at +104:
Fremantle -350, Western -170
Step up to +172:
Gold Coast -300
Step up to +499:
Carlton +120