AFL Round 14
6-7 last week.
Alright, 6-7 last week, 4-5 on full unit plays, 2-2 on half unit plays, good for -1.65 units. That brings the season-long tally to 45-38, and -0.70 units on the season.
Ah well. The -115 odds I’m getting means I’ve got to hit 12 bets for every 10 I lose to come out ahead. That’s 55%. Tough sledding, but illustrates the advantage of getting -110 lines if you can find them. We’d be up 2.95 units with those odds.
Here are this week’s plays.
AFL Plays of the Week
Adelaide +2.5 at Western
GWS +3.5 at St. Kilda
Gold Coast +26.5 at Geelong*
Essendon +30.5 at Melbourne*
Melbourne/Essendon o172.5*
Port Adelaide/Sydney o165.5*
6 plays, 4 units risked.
I really like the GWS play. I might double down on that one. They’re playing really solid footy over the last month or so while St. Kilda has been pretty mediocre. As I mentioned before, GWS has been up and down all season, so this could bite me, but if they’ve righted the ship, we’re hopping aboard at the right time.
I also like the Crows here. I’ve got them winning by a goal or so, so some value taking the 2.5 points.
The other spots, the numbers say to take these sides, but they feel bad right now. Geelong at home is about as tough as it gets, and the Suns haven’t been in great form lately. The other three spots are relying too heavily on bad offenses to contribute. Essendon stinks and Port has no offense. So I’ll take these at half unit sizes, but you could just as easily lay off of these this week.
Since the slate is light this week, here’s a ML round robin to throw together if you feel like it. Unofficial play here.
Adelaide +100, West Coast +120, GWS +100. Parlay these by twos and we’ll see if we come out in the black.
Good luck!