AFL Round 13
4-6 last week.
First losing week since Round 7.
I questioned some of the totals and it turns out one contest rained the whole match and another had 70 mph winds. We hit the over despite the rain, but never came close to hitting the over in the windy match. I guess I should make checking the weather a routine part of this!
I also downgraded some plays to half units because they felt wrong. Those plays went 1-2, so I was right to do so, though maybe I should consider fading these in certain cases. Carlton got the surprise outright win, while Sydney and Hawthorn won by a combined 176 points.
We’re now 39-31 on the season, and after dropping 1.96 units, we’re up just 0.95 units on the season. This is a grind and the -115 odds is making it hard to come out ahead.
AFL Plays of the Week
Adelaide +9.5 vs Geelong
Adelaide/Geelong o168.5
Western +20.5 at Hawthorn
Hawthorn/Western o175.5
North Melbourne +25.5 vs Fremantle
Port Adelaide -8.5 at West Coast
Essendon +30.5 vs Carlton
Essendon/Carlton o173.5
Collingwood/Melbourne u184.5
West Coast/Port Adelaide u172.5*
St. Kilda +29.5 at Sydney*
Sydney/St. Kilda u185.5*
Collingwood +0.5 vs Melbourne*
13 plays, 11 units risked.
I feel pretty good about a lot of these, so I’ll just touch on the ones I’m unsure of.
Carlton’s won three in a row and Essendon looks like they’ve never played footy before. Granted, you could say we’re buying low on Essendon and selling high on Carlton here. The over is probably the one that’s going to give me heartburn. Feels real bad.
St. Kilda. They keep popping up as plays and I hate it every time. I should go back and look at how many times I’ve bet St. Kilda this year and how they’ve shaken out. I do think if they hang with the Swans it’ll be a low scoring affair, so here’s hoping we get that.
Good luck!