AFL Round 12

6-4 last week.

Photo by Tyson Bennett on Unsplash

Plays went 6-5 last week, going 4-5 on full unit plays and 2-0 on half unit plays. That puts the week at -0.65 units (I added the Port/Carlton over midweek last week in the comments on the post. Hopefully you missed that one.).

Overall, our record is now 35-25, up 2.9 units on the season.

We had a couple of blowout losses (Carlton whooped Port Adelaide, Sydney was never close to covering) and some close ones that we basically split on (St Kilda lost by a kick, Adelaide covered by a kick, Collingwood/West Coast over missed by a kick).

I find that most weeks betting Aussie Rules shake out like this—up or down a half unit or so. Then there’s the occasional bad round, which is offset by the occasional round that goes like 8-1 like we had a few weeks ago.

On to Round 12.

AFL Plays of the Week

Fremantle +4.5 at Brisbane
Collingwood +7.5 at Western
Western/Collingwood u181.5
Melbourne -4.5 vs GWS
Melbourne/GWS o176.5
Essendon +8.5 at West Coast
West Coast/Essendon o155.5
St. Kilda +16.5 vs Hawthorn*
Carlton +23.5 vs Geelong*
Richmond +60.5 at Sydney*

10 plays, 8.5 units risked.

Some of these totals are way off the mark and I don’t know why. I guess we’ll find out. Bye weeks are starting this round, so there are fewer matches, but I’ve still managed to find some plays for you!

I really hate fading Geelong and Sydney in these spots, and Hawthorn should easily handle St. Kilda, but when the numbers skew the other way, I play the numbers and shrink the bet.

If you want some fun bets outside of these, I wouldn’t be opposed to taking a flier on the following moneyline bets: St. Kilda +175, Fremantle +105, Collingwood +125, Essendon +130. In fact, I might put those together in a Round Robin parlay.

If you want my explanation for any of these picks, just let me know in the comments!

Good luck!