AFL Round 12
Uh oh, did ya boi just crack the code?!
If you’ve been following along on our fantastical, down-under, American-sports-lull degeneracy, first off, let me say thank you. That’s very kind of you to at least open these posts and scroll down to see how I’ve fared at this. Secondly, what’s wrong with you? Go find a hobby or hang out with your family or something! This is too much gambling! And third (thirdly?), it’s ok, we’re making money again! Free money!!
Turns Out ELO Works
If you humored me last week, I developed ELO ratings for each of the AFL teams and then used that to generate a point spread. I then gave out some picks based on those generated spreads. As it turns out, the ELO ratings worked really well.
The straight up picks I gave out went 5-1, with the lone loss being Sydney -1.5 at Melbourne. In fact, over all 9 matchups, the ELO projected spreads had the right side in 8 of them, going 8-1 ATS. Let’s hope that wasn’t a fluke.
Add in that we got the clean sweep on the Moneyline parlay and both stepped up versions, and you went 8-1 if you tailed last week, winning about 5.63-7.85 units, depending on how you bet the parlay steps. That’ll do nicely.
Test Run #2
So what do the ratings say this week? Well, we’ve got the more slanted plays, and we’ve got the close ones, so I’ll continue to do what I did last week and give out my select plays from the ratings rundown, but then I’ll give you the rest of the ELO ratings favored sides, just to have. And then naturally, we’ll cap this thing off with another ML parlay.
My plays are:
Collingwood -8.5 vs Hawthorn
Adelaide -6.5 at Sydney
Geelong -38.5 at West Coast
GWS/Richmond u173.5
The rest of the plays are as follows, from largest margin disparity to smallest (margin disparity noted in parentheses). I’m also adjusting these for home field advantage, and with that baked in, these margins shrink or disappear, which is why I’m not making these picks.
Essendon +43.5 (13.19)
Gold Coast -16.5 (2.06)
GWS -44.5 (1.34)
St. Kilda (0.16)
If we’re having a good week, another consideration would be West Coast/Geelong o171.5.
ML Parlay Lock of the Week
Alright, we’ve been pretty decent with these ML parlays lately. Let’s see if we can keep the hot hand…
2 leg parlay at +171:
Collingwood -160, Adelaide -150
Step up to +203:
Geelong -850
Step up to +529:
Melbourne -200, Gold Coast -260