AFL Round 11

8-1 babayyyy!!!

Photo by Ian Tan on Unsplash

Nice little week ‘round these parts. 4-1 on full unit plays and 4-0 on half unit plays puts us at +4.22 units for the week. Overall, we’re 29-20 and up 3.55 units on the season.

There were a couple of sweats and luckily we came out on the right side of those. The lone loss was Essendon +34.5 and even that probably should’ve covered if it weren’t for a terrible day kicking by the Bombers. They kicked 8 goals on 21 scores. On average, that number is between 50-60%, meaning they should’ve kicked around 10-12 goals with that many opportunities.

Let’s keep rolling.

AFL Plays of the Week

Richmond/Essendon u175.5
St. Kilda +25.5 at Fremantle
North Melbourne +10.5 vs Gold Coast
Sydney +10.5 at Geelong
West Coast +44.5 at Collingwood
Collingwood/West Coast o180.5
Port Adelaide -10.5 vs Carlton
GWS +14.5 vs Brisbane
Adelaide +15.5 at Hawthorn*
Richmond +12.5 vs Essendon*

10 plays, 9 units

There are several totals that aren’t out yet this week for some reason. If there are plays to be had among those once they’re released, I’ll comment below with my plays there and I will be tracking those as full or half unit plays as specified.

My Explanations

Dreamtime at the G! That’s what the matchup between Richmond and Essendon is called and it usually results in a hard fought contest. Richmond dominated the series in their not-so-distant heyday, but they’ve dropped three in a row now. The stakes are a little different this year, as this may well be the battle for the wooden spoon which is ignominious title “awarded” to the team that finishes last in the standings each year. So at least there’s something on the line for these two this year. I’m also on the under.

St. Kilda is trying to scrape their way out of the middle of the pack, something they’ve been trying to do for nigh on a decade now. This is a spot versus one of the league’s best to measure up against. They probably won’t win outright, but they can keep it within 25.

Gold Coast has been stellar at home, but this one’s on the road. Not saying that the Kangaroos have a distinct advantage there, but they’ve shown fight this year.

Sydney’s played excellent footy this year, but their recent matches have shown signs that their grasp on the top of the ladder may be slipping. This is an important one against a Geelong side hot on their heels.

Collingwood might win this one by 120, but they also haven’t shown signs this year of being the Collingwood of old. The Eagles have had some spunk too. I’m on the over as well, so if Collingwood does end up blowing this one out, they ought to be able to clear the 180.5 while they’re at it.

Port’s one of those teams that’s way further down the ladder than they deserve to be, real close to Carlton actually. These sides shouldn’t be that close. Port should clear the 10.5 points they’re laying at home.

I mentioned recently how volatile GWS’ game has been this year. Last week they laid an egg. This week, maybe they bounce back against the Lions who just took one on the chin from the Cats.

Lastly, I like the Crows to keep it close against the Hawks on the road. Hawthorn’s strung together three disappointing results in a row and are due for a bounce back, but they may have to wait a week as the Crows are flying high, winners of three straight.