AFL Round 10
5-3 last week
Ok, we’ve stacked a couple winning weeks in a row now. I gave two half-unit plays last week and those split. 5-3 for the week and that’s good for +1.4 units.
On the season as a whole, we’re now 21-19 but still in the hole 0.67 units. Maybe this is the week we get back in the black.
I’ve decided I like the half-unit format for plays my numbers like but I don’t feel great about, or the other way around. Also for plays that my numbers consistently like, but by a small margin. There are a lot of those plays this week, unfortunately.
AFL Plays of the Week
Port Adelaide +26.5 at Gold Coast
Melbourne/Hawthorn o183.5
Essendon +34.5 vs Fremantle
Richmond +41.5 at St. Kilda
West Coast +30.5 vs GWS
Collingwood +29.5 at Sydney*
Sydney/Collingwood u182.5*
Melbourne +18.5 vs Hawthorn*
Carlton/Western u187.5*
*0.5 unit plays
9 plays, 7 units
My Explanations
Port has a terrible record but they’ve played a ton of close matches. Their last three losses have been by 3, 1, and 2 points. I have no idea why Gold Coast is laying such a big number here.
I like Melbourne to hang in this matchup against Hawthorn and these are two of the best offenses in the league.
Essendon isn’t good and Freo is very good, but Freo’s on the road for this one and Essendon has covered this number four times this year. Freo can cruise to a victory without covering.
I’m betting all the worst teams this week. I’m sure that’s going to work well out for me. Richmond stinks but St. Kilda shouldn’t be laying 40+ points against anyone either. Let’s hope for a low scoring affair.
Same story with West Coast. They’ve shown some fight so far and GWS is far too inconsistent to be laying big numbers here. The Giants may win by 100, but they’re also capable of losing this one outright. I’ll take the points.
Sydney, in Sydney, is a diabolical matchup right now. They’re rolling opponents. Collingwood doesn’t have it this year, but they’ll give the Swans their best. The Magpies love to get in dogfights and when my numbers lean with taking the points AND the under, I’m sure one of them is bound to hit.
Let me know if you’re tailing!