So the picks have still been middling, but last week I decided to give out my version of my sheet’s plays and those faired a little better. A bad result in the Brisbane matchup meant a 4-5 week but I’d make those same three bets every time.
The good news is that my stepped up ML parlays all came through. The initial two-leg parlay at +140 hit. Then I added another team to juice it to +369 and that hit. And then I added a fourth team to the parlay to get us to +838 and THAT hit too!
So that makes up for losing a little over a unit on the individual plays I’d say!
So let’s run it back this week.
My Plays
Hawthorn +4.5 at Gold Coast
Hawthorn +110 at Gold Coast
Carlton +5.5 at Sydney
Carlton +115 at Sydney
Collingwood/Adelaide o173.5
So long as Hawthorn or Carlton wins, we’ll have a great setup for a profitable week.
ML Parlay
I’m going to put out a pair of favorites to hopefully cover a riskier play.
First step: +136
Western -375, St. Kilda -300, Collingwood -250
Step it up: +968
Western -375, St. Kilda -300, Collingwood -250, Hawthorn +110, Carlton +115
The risky play: +893
Hawthorn +110, Carlton +115, Port Adelaide +120
This is admittedly a less secure parlay than last week. Typically I like to find two favorites on the ML that I can parlay to get around even odds on. This week, there are a lot of heavy favorites and the favorites that are in a good range for a ML parlay I don’t like. So we’ll take a swing on a three legger and see what happens.
I’m adding on my two favorite ML plays this week to sweeten it up a lot, so I’d probably only recommend risking up to 0.25 unit on the step up and then that means we can put the remaining 0.11 units on the risky play. That way, so long as the first step hits, we come out even at worst.
I’m noting my tiered plays below for posterity. Tail or fade them as you please!
Tier 1 Plays (5-4)
Hawthorn +4.5 at Gold Coast
Carlton +5.5 at Sydney
Tier 2 Plays (5-11)
Melbourne +31.5 at Brisbane
Tier 3 Plays (13-10)
Port Adelaide +6.5 vs Geelong
Moneyline Picks (9-10)
Hawthorn +110
Carlton +115
Port Adelaide +120
Totals (16-18)
Sydney/Carlton o164.5
Collingwood/Adelaide o173.5
GWS/Fremantle o174.5
Western/Essendon o176.5
Brisbane/Melbourne u179.5