Last week I gave you four plays for the two men’s matches, but I summed things up like this: “…the only play I’d agree with at first glance is the Adelaide/Hawthorn over. I think if I were blindly betting, I’d have taken the other side for the three other bets.”
As it turned out, the plays I gave you went 1-3, with the Adelaide/Hawthorn over being the only cover. So even though the numbers missed, I had both matches pegged exactly.
This is the secret to my success, give you one set of plays, but tell you I like the opposite and then I’m right either way!
Nah, naturally, a full season’s numbers (24 rounds dating back to April) aren’t going to fully incapsulate the current performance of two sides set to square off. But hey, when the numbers are working, we’re gonna look at the numbers.
And here’s where it gets interesting. I’m aligned with the numbers this week.
AFL Plays of the Week
Geelong -9.5
Geelong/Hawthorn o164.5
Brisbane +5.5
There’s no real value on the total for the Collingwood/Brisbane match, so no need to force a play there. I think Geelong is a buzz saw right now and I have a hard time seeing any team in the competition beat them. That said, I like this Hawthorn side a lot and I’ll be rooting for the Hawks to pull off the upset. I’m thinking very hard about betting both sides of this match to win the Grand Final. Geelong are the current favorites at around +150. Hawthorn are the longest shots at +400, but I like the winner of this match to win the whole thing, so there’s good value there.
Regarding the over, Geelong scores 100 points with their eyes closed most weeks, including 13 of their last 16 matches, topping 150+ points three separate times. So we’re looking for around 60 points from Hawthorn to hit this over. More is better, but even if they get blown out, Geelong’s capable of tallying the lions’ share of the scoring.
Collingwood is an enigma. They play high pressure footy and are seemingly impossible to beat in a close contest, but their play fell off a cliff the last quarter of the season. I think they got a lucky matchup against Adelaide and while they’re perfectly capable of beating last year’s champs here, I think Brisbane is the side I’d trust to not lay an egg. My numbers have this one close to the spread, but favoring Brisbane slightly.
AFLW Plays of the Week
A miserable week on the women’s side, with plays going 1-5. Got hooked on the Sydney spread and it never got better. Here’s what the numbers say this week.
Collingwood +14.5
Geelong -8.5
North Melbourne -33.5
Essendon +8.5
Melbourne -17.5
Western +28.5
Good luck!