73-72-1 (the rare push!) on the season as a whole, up 15 units.

Since updates, we’re 13-10-1, up 24.83 units.

Significant caveat this week: this is the last round of the regular season. A lot of teams with nothing to play for here, some with nothing but seeding on the line. Very little at stake here, so team effort levels are a total unknown.

AFL Plays of the Week

St. Kilda -10.5 vs Gold Coast - 2.5u
Collingwood +24.5 vs Brisbane - 4.1u
Richmond +60.5 at Geelong - 4.5u
GWS +24.5 at Adelaide - 1.7u
West Coast +39.5 vs Hawthorn - 1.7u

St. Kilda -180 ML vs Gold Coast - 15.1u
Melbourne -275 ML vs Western - 18.4u

Carlton/Fremantle u181.5 - 0.3u
Geelong/Richmond u184.5 - 0.3u

9 total plays, 48.6 units risked.

Full disclosure, the West Coast/Hawthorn match got pulled from my book. Not sure why. Sydney/North Melbourne has no total yet. If anything changes, I’ll let you know in the chat or comments!

Good luck!

70-68 on the season, up 15.94 units.

Since the changes I made, we’re 10-6, up 25.77 units. We’re having a good time.

On to this week’s plays.

AFL Plays of the Week

Adelaide +22.5 at Fremantle - 1.7 units
Brisbane -32.5 vs Gold Coast - 0.5 units
Port Adelaide +25.5 vs Melbourne - 0.5 units
West Coast +33.5 at GWS - 1.7 units

Brisbane -550 ML vs Gold Coast - 14.1 units
Carlton -155 ML at Western - 6.2 units

North Melbourne/Geelong under 178.5 - 0.3 units
Western/Carlton under 176.5 - 0.3 units

8 plays, 25.3 units risked.

Good luck!

We’re now 67-64 on the season, up 9.94 units.

***NEW TELEGRAM CHANNEL ADDED***

SEE THE LINK BELOW TO JOIN THE CHANNEL NOW BABY!!!

Since my little upgrade, we’re on a bit of a heater, 7-2 and up 19.77 units. I should have been doing this all season! Hopefully we can roll this straight through the finals and into next year.

I’ve been figuring out an easier way to do all of this than manually entering odds data, or updating scripts or stats. So I landed on building a Telegram channel. If you’re unfamiliar, Telegram is a messaging app that includes channels you can subscribe to and receive messages! Like bet recommendations! From me! For FREE!

Join the Telegram channel now

Here are this week’s plays.

AFL Plays of the Week

Melbourne +13.5 vs Fremantle - 4.2 units
Richmond +55.5 at Adelaide - 4.6 units
GWS -18.5 vs Gold Coast - 0.6 units
Melbourne +170 vs Fremantle - 8.5 units

GWS -300 vs Gold Coast - 5 units
St. Kilda +115 vs Carlton - 10.1 units

Western/North Melbourne under 171.5 - 0.4 units

7 plays, 33.4 units risked.

This is a lot to stake this week. Take these unit sizes are confidence evaluations instead of true units. We’ve had success, but we’re laying 33.4 units on these 7 plays, vs 12-20 units the two prior weeks with plays. Or screw it. Throw caution to the wind and live a little. Who am I to tell you what to do?

Just as a personal note, I hate the Richmond play. Gonna be bad weather in Adelaide for that one, which you would think would help the Tigers. Who knows. I like the St. Kilda play and I like the odds on the Melbourne match, though I’m not sure we’ll get the results we’re hoping for in both of those.

I’m also tinkering with a live betting model. I might have some plays pop up there.

I built a Telegram channel as well. Subscribe to that and get my AFL plays and MLB plays straight to your phone.

I’m still playing around with it and adding onto it, but it’s the best way to get live plays as soon as I see them.

Thanks and good luck!

Two weeks ago, I revamped my system plays and we had a great week. I was excited to see what the card had in store next. And then there were no plays recommended last week. Bummer.

I didn’t leave you empty handed though. I gave out some leans, just to wet the whistle. Carlton came through on the spread and the moneyline, while Richmond failed to cover, but the total went under. Hawthorn covered their spread easily, meaning a 4-1 week, though we aren’t counting it.

So to recap where we stand on the season: 64-63 overall, up 2.03 units.

This week, I’m back with real plays! Hooray! Here they are.

AFL Plays of the Week

Melbourne -140 at Gold Coast - 5.2u
Carlton +25.5 vs Brisbane - 3.5u
Melbourne -3.5 at Gold Coast - 2.5u
Hawthorn -35.5 vs North Melbourne - 1u

4 plays, 12.2 units risked.

AFL Leans (unofficial)

St. Kilda +13.5 vs Sydney
Essendon +45.5 vs Adelaide

If you’re betting these, I’d probably wager something really small like 0.1-0.2u.

Good luck!

Hacker mode engaged.

As the dozens of you who have followed along all season (or for the past few seasons) already know, this season has been a slog.

After another bad week, we were sitting at 60-62 and down 9.83 units going into last week. So I clicked some things and turned some gears and spit out a little bit different format of plays last week.

The early results are encouraging!

A 4-1 week, +11.86 units. Back in the black after one week. Powerful? Dangerous? Thrilling? Many people are saying this is the Next Big Thing™.

The sad part is this week there are no official plays.

I’ll give you a few leans though, which do not count for our tally, so just wagering peanuts on these:

AFL Leans (unofficial)

Carlton -6.5 vs Gold Coast
Carlton -150 vs Gold Coast
Richmond +41.5 at Western
Western/Richmond u172.5
Hawthorn -53.5 vs Essendon

Ok, I had to go back to the drawing board this week.

I’m now 60-62 on the season, down 9.83 units on the season.

Stinky!

I’m not any better than a coin flip!

So, I tweaked some things. I’ve done some back testing. I’ve built a confidence model complete with unit recommendations. Join me, won’t you, as I take this newest-and-improvedest model for a spin?

AFL Plays of the Week

Geelong -11.5 vs St. Kilda - 6.1u
Melbourne -14.5 at North Melbourne - 5.3u
Geelong/Melbourne ML parlay +120 - 2u
West Coast/Brisbane o169.5 - 2.9u
Gold Coast/Western u170.5 - 1.4u

5 plays, 20.06 units risked to win 18.1 units.

I like these plays! They also conflict somewhat with my recent numbers!

I’d recommend being conservative with your unit size here, like, VERY conservative. Let’s see if this bears out some fruit over the next month or two so we can roll it into next season.

Another added bonus is that I was able to automate a lot of this and backfill a ton of missing historical data, so this should be easier AND better.

Good luck!

We were so close to having a great week.

Hooked on one total just before the siren, and lost another spread play at the siren I think. That’s what happens when you back bad teams I guess.

We still had a winning week though, bringing the season tally to 56-54 and totaling a -5.31 unit season.

AFL Plays of the Week

Port Adelaide +10.5 at St. Kilda
St. Kilda/Port Adelaide u171.5
Geelong -9.5 at GWS
GWS/Geelong o184.5
Carlton/Hawthorn o173.5
Gold Coast +17.5 at Adelaide
Adelaide/Gold Coast o166.5
Western/West Coast o175.5
Melbourne -41.5 vs Richmond

Sydney +12.5 at Fremantle*
West Coast +36.5 at Western*
Essendon +62.5 at Brisbane*

12 total plays, 10.5 units risked.
* denotes a half unit play

I’m feeling lucky this week. I think it’s gonna be a good one. Good luck if you’re tailing!

We’ve been in a slump for about a month now.

I thought we were gonna pull out of it this week, but a few tough beats on the spread turned what could’ve been a 6-2 week into a 3-5 one.

I think we ended up down 2.33 units this week, bringing the season total to 52-51 and down 5.79 units on the year. I hate it!

I’m also thinking that since my numbers use each team’s full season stats to calculate spreads and totals, that as the season progresses, it’s less and less a useful snapshot of each team’s current performance. I should figure that out when I have time.

On to this week’s plays!

AFL Plays of the Week

Fremantle -19.5 at GWS
Collingwood +8.5 at Gold Coast
North Melbourne +17.5 at Port Adelaide
Geelong/Brisbane o174.5
West Coast/Adelaide u172.5
Hawthorn/Melbourne o172.5
Gold Coast/Collingwood o173.5

No half unit plays this week. 7 plays, 7 units risked.

Good luck!

A couple of stinker weeks in a row around here. Got hooked on a goal at the siren in one match, had the right side and wrong outcome in a couple of others. That’s how it goes sometimes.

I had a few additional totals I liked but didn’t include as official plays last week and those went 2-1, so hopefully you included those in your plays.

49-46 on the season. I’m starting to think I’m not very good at this. Down 3.46 units on the season.

AFL Plays of the Week

Sydney +1.5 at Brisbane
Hawthorn/GWS over 173.5
West Coast +31.5 at Carlton
Collingwood -36.5 vs Richmond
Port Adelaide +22.5 vs Adelaide
North Melbourne -14.5 vs Essendon

Brisbane/Sydney over 184.5*
Hawthorn -20.5 vs GWS*

8 plays, 7 units risked.

I like almost all the full unit plays. They feel like the right sides except for Port. That team stinks, but this is a big rivalry match and hopefully they can hang in this one. I don’t have a ton of value on Hawthorn or Fremantle, but those are the sides I lean to.

Good luck!

The juice is squeezing! I hate it! We split on the full unit plays, 1-1. The half unit plays went 1-3. 47-42 on the season, down 1.7 units on the season.

Time to lock in I guess!

AFL Plays of the Week

Melbourne +16.5 at Adelaide
Adelaide/Melbourne o178.5
Carlton +14.5 at GWS
Port Adelaide +13.5 at Collingwood
North Melbourne -18.5 at Richmond

Fremantle -13.5 vs Geelong*

6 plays, 5.5 units risked.

I wouldn’t argue if you wanted to make the Carlton or Port plays half units. Those are spots where they could get blown out.

Freo’s basically a coin flip too. I wanted to bet Hawthorn here, but I don’t see any edge there.

These aren’t plays, but here are some totals I’m thinking about:

Richmond/North Melbourne o176.5
GWS/Carlton u186.5
St. Kilda/Western u184.5

That’s all I’ve got for this week! Good luck with your bets.

Alright, 6-7 last week, 4-5 on full unit plays, 2-2 on half unit plays, good for -1.65 units. That brings the season-long tally to 45-38, and -0.70 units on the season.

Ah well. The -115 odds I’m getting means I’ve got to hit 12 bets for every 10 I lose to come out ahead. That’s 55%. Tough sledding, but illustrates the advantage of getting -110 lines if you can find them. We’d be up 2.95 units with those odds.

Here are this week’s plays.

AFL Plays of the Week

Adelaide +2.5 at Western
GWS +3.5 at St. Kilda

Gold Coast +26.5 at Geelong*
Essendon +30.5 at Melbourne*
Melbourne/Essendon o172.5*
Port Adelaide/Sydney o165.5*

6 plays, 4 units risked.

I really like the GWS play. I might double down on that one. They’re playing really solid footy over the last month or so while St. Kilda has been pretty mediocre. As I mentioned before, GWS has been up and down all season, so this could bite me, but if they’ve righted the ship, we’re hopping aboard at the right time.

I also like the Crows here. I’ve got them winning by a goal or so, so some value taking the 2.5 points.

The other spots, the numbers say to take these sides, but they feel bad right now. Geelong at home is about as tough as it gets, and the Suns haven’t been in great form lately. The other three spots are relying too heavily on bad offenses to contribute. Essendon stinks and Port has no offense. So I’ll take these at half unit sizes, but you could just as easily lay off of these this week.

Since the slate is light this week, here’s a ML round robin to throw together if you feel like it. Unofficial play here.

Adelaide +100, West Coast +120, GWS +100. Parlay these by twos and we’ll see if we come out in the black.

Good luck!

First losing week since Round 7.

I questioned some of the totals and it turns out one contest rained the whole match and another had 70 mph winds. We hit the over despite the rain, but never came close to hitting the over in the windy match. I guess I should make checking the weather a routine part of this!

I also downgraded some plays to half units because they felt wrong. Those plays went 1-2, so I was right to do so, though maybe I should consider fading these in certain cases. Carlton got the surprise outright win, while Sydney and Hawthorn won by a combined 176 points.

We’re now 39-31 on the season, and after dropping 1.96 units, we’re up just 0.95 units on the season. This is a grind and the -115 odds is making it hard to come out ahead.

AFL Plays of the Week

Adelaide +9.5 vs Geelong
Adelaide/Geelong o168.5
Western +20.5 at Hawthorn
Hawthorn/Western o175.5
North Melbourne +25.5 vs Fremantle
Port Adelaide -8.5 at West Coast
Essendon +30.5 vs Carlton
Essendon/Carlton o173.5
Collingwood/Melbourne u184.5

West Coast/Port Adelaide u172.5*
St. Kilda +29.5 at Sydney*
Sydney/St. Kilda u185.5*
Collingwood +0.5 vs Melbourne*

13 plays, 11 units risked.

I feel pretty good about a lot of these, so I’ll just touch on the ones I’m unsure of.

Carlton’s won three in a row and Essendon looks like they’ve never played footy before. Granted, you could say we’re buying low on Essendon and selling high on Carlton here. The over is probably the one that’s going to give me heartburn. Feels real bad.

St. Kilda. They keep popping up as plays and I hate it every time. I should go back and look at how many times I’ve bet St. Kilda this year and how they’ve shaken out. I do think if they hang with the Swans it’ll be a low scoring affair, so here’s hoping we get that.

Good luck!

Plays went 6-5 last week, going 4-5 on full unit plays and 2-0 on half unit plays. That puts the week at -0.65 units (I added the Port/Carlton over midweek last week in the comments on the post. Hopefully you missed that one.).

Overall, our record is now 35-25, up 2.9 units on the season.

We had a couple of blowout losses (Carlton whooped Port Adelaide, Sydney was never close to covering) and some close ones that we basically split on (St Kilda lost by a kick, Adelaide covered by a kick, Collingwood/West Coast over missed by a kick).

I find that most weeks betting Aussie Rules shake out like this—up or down a half unit or so. Then there’s the occasional bad round, which is offset by the occasional round that goes like 8-1 like we had a few weeks ago.

On to Round 12.

AFL Plays of the Week

Fremantle +4.5 at Brisbane
Collingwood +7.5 at Western
Western/Collingwood u181.5
Melbourne -4.5 vs GWS
Melbourne/GWS o176.5
Essendon +8.5 at West Coast
West Coast/Essendon o155.5
St. Kilda +16.5 vs Hawthorn*
Carlton +23.5 vs Geelong*
Richmond +60.5 at Sydney*

10 plays, 8.5 units risked.

Some of these totals are way off the mark and I don’t know why. I guess we’ll find out. Bye weeks are starting this round, so there are fewer matches, but I’ve still managed to find some plays for you!

I really hate fading Geelong and Sydney in these spots, and Hawthorn should easily handle St. Kilda, but when the numbers skew the other way, I play the numbers and shrink the bet.

If you want some fun bets outside of these, I wouldn’t be opposed to taking a flier on the following moneyline bets: St. Kilda +175, Fremantle +105, Collingwood +125, Essendon +130. In fact, I might put those together in a Round Robin parlay.

If you want my explanation for any of these picks, just let me know in the comments!

Good luck!

Nice little week ‘round these parts. 4-1 on full unit plays and 4-0 on half unit plays puts us at +4.22 units for the week. Overall, we’re 29-20 and up 3.55 units on the season.

There were a couple of sweats and luckily we came out on the right side of those. The lone loss was Essendon +34.5 and even that probably should’ve covered if it weren’t for a terrible day kicking by the Bombers. They kicked 8 goals on 21 scores. On average, that number is between 50-60%, meaning they should’ve kicked around 10-12 goals with that many opportunities.

Let’s keep rolling.

AFL Plays of the Week

Richmond/Essendon u175.5
St. Kilda +25.5 at Fremantle
North Melbourne +10.5 vs Gold Coast
Sydney +10.5 at Geelong
West Coast +44.5 at Collingwood
Collingwood/West Coast o180.5
Port Adelaide -10.5 vs Carlton
GWS +14.5 vs Brisbane
Adelaide +15.5 at Hawthorn*
Richmond +12.5 vs Essendon*

10 plays, 9 units

There are several totals that aren’t out yet this week for some reason. If there are plays to be had among those once they’re released, I’ll comment below with my plays there and I will be tracking those as full or half unit plays as specified.

My Explanations

Dreamtime at the G! That’s what the matchup between Richmond and Essendon is called and it usually results in a hard fought contest. Richmond dominated the series in their not-so-distant heyday, but they’ve dropped three in a row now. The stakes are a little different this year, as this may well be the battle for the wooden spoon which is ignominious title “awarded” to the team that finishes last in the standings each year. So at least there’s something on the line for these two this year. I’m also on the under.

St. Kilda is trying to scrape their way out of the middle of the pack, something they’ve been trying to do for nigh on a decade now. This is a spot versus one of the league’s best to measure up against. They probably won’t win outright, but they can keep it within 25.

Gold Coast has been stellar at home, but this one’s on the road. Not saying that the Kangaroos have a distinct advantage there, but they’ve shown fight this year.

Sydney’s played excellent footy this year, but their recent matches have shown signs that their grasp on the top of the ladder may be slipping. This is an important one against a Geelong side hot on their heels.

Collingwood might win this one by 120, but they also haven’t shown signs this year of being the Collingwood of old. The Eagles have had some spunk too. I’m on the over as well, so if Collingwood does end up blowing this one out, they ought to be able to clear the 180.5 while they’re at it.

Port’s one of those teams that’s way further down the ladder than they deserve to be, real close to Carlton actually. These sides shouldn’t be that close. Port should clear the 10.5 points they’re laying at home.

I mentioned recently how volatile GWS’ game has been this year. Last week they laid an egg. This week, maybe they bounce back against the Lions who just took one on the chin from the Cats.

Lastly, I like the Crows to keep it close against the Hawks on the road. Hawthorn’s strung together three disappointing results in a row and are due for a bounce back, but they may have to wait a week as the Crows are flying high, winners of three straight.

Ok, we’ve stacked a couple winning weeks in a row now. I gave two half-unit plays last week and those split. 5-3 for the week and that’s good for +1.4 units.

On the season as a whole, we’re now 21-19 but still in the hole 0.67 units. Maybe this is the week we get back in the black.

I’ve decided I like the half-unit format for plays my numbers like but I don’t feel great about, or the other way around. Also for plays that my numbers consistently like, but by a small margin. There are a lot of those plays this week, unfortunately.

AFL Plays of the Week

Port Adelaide +26.5 at Gold Coast
Melbourne/Hawthorn o183.5
Essendon +34.5 vs Fremantle
Richmond +41.5 at St. Kilda
West Coast +30.5 vs GWS
Collingwood +29.5 at Sydney*
Sydney/Collingwood u182.5*
Melbourne +18.5 vs Hawthorn*
Carlton/Western u187.5*

*0.5 unit plays

9 plays, 7 units

My Explanations

Port has a terrible record but they’ve played a ton of close matches. Their last three losses have been by 3, 1, and 2 points. I have no idea why Gold Coast is laying such a big number here.

I like Melbourne to hang in this matchup against Hawthorn and these are two of the best offenses in the league.

Essendon isn’t good and Freo is very good, but Freo’s on the road for this one and Essendon has covered this number four times this year. Freo can cruise to a victory without covering.

I’m betting all the worst teams this week. I’m sure that’s going to work well out for me. Richmond stinks but St. Kilda shouldn’t be laying 40+ points against anyone either. Let’s hope for a low scoring affair.

Same story with West Coast. They’ve shown some fight so far and GWS is far too inconsistent to be laying big numbers here. The Giants may win by 100, but they’re also capable of losing this one outright. I’ll take the points.

Sydney, in Sydney, is a diabolical matchup right now. They’re rolling opponents. Collingwood doesn’t have it this year, but they’ll give the Swans their best. The Magpies love to get in dogfights and when my numbers lean with taking the points AND the under, I’m sure one of them is bound to hit.

Let me know if you’re tailing!

Back in the black last week, going 4-2. We hit on Collingwood, the Adelaide/Port under, St. Kilda, and the Sydney/Melbourne over. We lost on Freo and the West Coast/Richmond under. I gave the caveat that Western could cover against Freo easily if they got healthy, and they did, but I grade the plays as I give them! Hopefully you checked the injury report on that one.

We’re at 16-16 on the season, which is losing the vig. So we’re down about 2.08 units. Let’s see if we can get above water this week.

AFL Plays of the Week

Fremantle -3.5 vs Hawthorn
Port Adelaide +1.5 vs Western
Brisbane/Carlton o185.5
North Melbourne +27.5 vs Sydney
North Melbourne/Sydney u192.5
Essendon +44.5 at GWS
Carlton +42.5 at Brisbane*
St. Kilda +15.5 at Gold Coast*

*0.5 unit plays

8 plays, 7 units.

My Explanations

Freo is laying points at home against arguably the best team in the league? Smells a little fishy. But the Dockers are playing great footy right now, and Hawthorn has to travel across country for this one, plus they’ve got room enough at the top of the ladder to let this one slip past them.

Port is sneakily playing really sound footy. They’re one of the best defensive teams right now, hosting a Bulldogs side that’s struggled recently, dropping four straight.

I like Carlton to hang around in this one (see more below), and while Brisbane is capable of carrying the lion’s share of this total, if Carlton can pitch in, it should be a breeze.

While the Swans are probably the only team you could argue is better than Hawthorn, they just gave up a ton of points to Melbourne. Their offense is humming, but they’re on the road for this one against a North side that’s eager to show they belong in the playoff discussion. No better chance than this.

I’m pairing this with the under. The Swans have been crushing overs this year, so when the numbers get this high, I’ll take the under and hope for one slow quarter or some unpleasant weather to keep things under the bloated total here.

The Giants’ offense has been Jekyll and Hyde this year, going over 100 three times, but under 70 four times. While Essendon has given up almost 400 points their last three matches, they ought to be able to keep this one close if GWS can’t convert their opportunities.

Lastly, I’ve got a couple of fliers on Carlton and St. Kilda. They’re playing good sides on the road, which is a recipe for disaster, but my numbers show value on the dogs here.

Just For Fun Plays

If I was throwing out some moneyline plays this week, I’d consider betting Fremantle -130, Port Adelaide -110, and St. Kilda +165.

I also love to take my 4 or 5 best plays and put them in a round robin. If you’re unfamiliar with round robins, it’s essentially a 2-leg box bet, where you parlay each of the 4 or 5 plays by twos. So for this one, I’d take the 4 spread plays: Freo, Port, North, and Essendon, and parlay Freo with Port, Freo with North, Freo with Essendon, Port with North, Port with Essendon, and North with Essendon. So six 2-leg parlays in all combinations.

When I have five plays, I’ll do it with 3-leg parlays as well. For -110 or -115 bets, you have to hit 3/4 or 3/5 legs to come out ahead. Another great way to do round robins is with plus money plays. That way, it requires fewer legs to get net-positive.

Give it a try if you like!

2-4 this past week.

That puts us at 12-14 and around 3.56u in the red. We’ll keep trying though!

The good news is I like a bunch of home teams this week. Hopefully that works in our favor and we string together some Ws.

AFL Plays of the Week

Collingwood +21.5 vs Hawthorn
Fremantle -21.5 at Western*
Adelaide/Port Adelaide u177.5
West Coast/Richmond u184.5
St. Kilda -14.5 at Carlton
Sydney/Melbourne o186.5

My Explanations

Collingwood’s been all over the place this year and Hawthorn is arguably the best team in the AFL this year, but this is a big rivalry and 21.5 is a lot of points for a Collingwood side whose bread and butter has been winning tight games late over the past few years.

The Bulldogs have a great roster. They’re absolutely gutted by injuries though. If they’re healthy, this feels like one they can win easily. But look at these numbers over the last three weeks: 64, 56, and 60. That’s how many points they’ve scored. 104, 131, 126. That’s how many points they’ve allowed. The thing to watch is the injury report. I’ll probably scratch this bet if Western gets three or more guys back this week.

The Showdown. Always a classic. Adelaide has won five of the last six Showdowns, but Port is in better form right now. The line’s too tight to call, so I’ll take the under here.

West Coast and Richmond are the two worst defenses in the league, but they’re also two of the worst offenses. We’re hoping for poor kicking for this high total.

Carlton stinks.

Sydney can score and my numbers say bet Melbourne +31.5, but it seems like the over’s just as smart a play here if you like Melbourne to hang with the high-scoring Swans.

Good luck!

I mentioned last week how in my several years of doing this, I’ve had tons of rounds where I lost money, but they’re typically a 5-5 week or a 3-4 week where you’re just losing one unit or just the juice. It’s the weeks where we go 9-2 that get us firmly net positive.

Well, I called upon the gambling gods and they bit. 2-6. It stinks!

Sure, a couple bad breaks, but mostly just misses. It happens sometimes! I probably shouldn’t invoke it. Whatcha gonna do?

That knocks out all our profit for the season and stacks us at 10-10 on the year. That puts us down about 1.3 units.

Onward and upward.

AFL Plays of the Week

Collingwood -17.5 at Essendon
Fremantle -36.5 vs Carlton
Fremantle/Carlton u178.5
West Coast +39.5 at St. Kilda
Adelaide +19.5 at Brisbane
North Melbourne +16.5 at GWS

My numbers are screaming to take Western at home against Sydney, but Western literally had their three best players go down with injuries last week, so I’m going to lay off that one here.

The line is not out for the Richmond/Melbourne match, but that should have Melbourne favored by 30-40 points.

Carlton is in a tailspin and Fremantle is returning home for this one, on the West Coast where they typically play better. These two teams have four common opponents already, where Fremantle has gone 4-0 with an average margin of victory of 29 points and Carlton has gone 1-3 with and average margin of -13 plus they’re coming off a heartbreaking loss to their biggest rival. Bad spot for the Blues.

We’re betting on a couple of sides that are trending down in West Coast and Adelaide. We’re buying low, looking for them to cover their margins. Adelaide is averaging less than 10 point margins. The two matches they’ve played where the margin exceeded 8 points were wins.

Let’s get back in the black!

We followed up a 5-2 record in Round 4 with a 3-2 record in Round 5. Most everywhere I look, I get odds at -115. Sometimes you get -110, but for the most part, most American books are juicing these odds so they don’t have to put effort into validating the lines. That means a win pays $0.87 on the dollar.

Overall, we’re 8-4 and up 2.96 units. I’ll track this all season long, and hopefully you can find better odds where you are.

I’m not going to sit here and tell you to bet these heavily. That’s a recipe for disaster and I don’t want to jinx myself. BUT! Without looking too deeply into my history, I’m pretty sure there are rarely weeks where my plays lose 2+ units. Usually, we’re right around +/- one unit, and there is occasionally a round or two where the plays go like 9-2 and we’re up big. So just a little food for thought based on the results I’ve seen over the past five-ish years I’ve been betting on Aussie Rules.

Outside of official plays, I suggested three spread plays that went 1-2, and two totals that both hit. I also suggested three ML plays that all lost. Whatcha gonna do?

I also suggested taking the unders in the last two matches at the Adelaide Oval, since the AFL was playing five games in 4 days on the same field. Both of those hit as well.

Here are this week’s plays.

AFL Plays of the Week

Western +11.5 at Geelong
Geelong/Western o187.5
GWS +26.5 at Sydney
Gold Coast/Essendon u189.5
Port Adelaide +40.5
Adelaide -15.5 vs St. Kilda
West Coast +43.5 vs Fremantle
West Coast/Fremantle u185.5

My favorite play of the week is Adelaide -15.5.

I have conflicting indicators on the Gold Coast/Essendon match, so I’ll stick with the total play there. Let me know if you’re tailing!

You may be wondering why we’ve got a bird pic as our lead image today. That’s a magpie. The same magpie that burned us this past week, and the same magpie we’re backing again this week as our top play.

I gave seven official plays last week and those went 5-2. Good for you for tailing me. You’re a very smart boy.

Collingwood happened to be without the best player in the sport, and while that doesn’t explain the entirety of their 54 point drubbing they took, it certainly ended up being important to our chances.

Nick Daicos has been done in by his hammy. I have no idea what his status looks like for this week and I imagine most of the training staff in Collingwood don’t have that answer yet either.

Let’s recap the rest of the plays last week, shall we?

Essendon easily covered the +70.5, Melbourne won outright, as did North Melbourne, and Geelong almost pulled out the W, easily covering their +10.5 spread. We split on the two totals I gave you, easily sailing under in Richmond/Port Adelaide, and then getting done in almost exclusively by Sydney as they contributed 163 points toward the 181.5 total.

I suggested maybe throwing some money on Collingwood and Geelong moneylines and they both lost. I had a couple of leans on a pair of totals and those split as well. That’s why these aren’t official plays I guess!

This week is the Gather Round, where all teams travel to Adelaide to play. Sounds like a really fun week. Five matches will be played at the Adelaide Oval over 4 days, while two smaller venues each host a pair. I haven’t looked into it, but I wonder if taking the under in the fourth or fifth match at the Adelaide Oval might be a good idea, given that the field ought to be beat up pretty good by then. Those matches are Hawthorn/Western and the last match of the week Port Adelaide/St. Kilda, in case you want to test it out.

Here are this week’s plays.

AFL Plays of the Week

Carlton +32.5 at Adelaide
Collingwood +10.5 vs Fremantle
Essendon +26.5 vs Melbourne
Gold Coast +2.5 at Sydney
Port Adelaide +6.5 vs St. Kilda

Many of the totals for matches this week aren’t out yet, so I don’t have any totals for you this week. If you’re looking to throw a little extra scratch around, I thought about taking North Melbourne +34.5, Western +7.5, and Richmond +34.5 as well as The GWS/Richmond over 180.5 and the Essendon/Melbourne under 189.5.

There are a few moneyline spots I like here as well: Collingwood +145, Western +120, and Port Adelaide +120.

Again, just the plays up top are graded. These are just for fun. Let me know if you tailed last week and if you have any questions, leave a comment!