It’s time to kick off some more footy picks around here.

In case you missed out in past years, we here at SLP like all the kinds of football we can get and that includes Australian Rules Football. Familiarize yourself with a great sport, or don’t! The plays will be the plays. We’re here to make money.

I like to give my system I’ve developed a few weeks of data, and now that we’re through the Opening Round as well as Rounds 1-3, I’m ready to start saying these with my chest!

Here are this week’s plays.

AFL Plays of the Week

Collingwood +16.5 at Brisbane
Essendon +70.5 at Western
Melbourne +19.5 vs Gold Coast
Geelong +10.5 at Hawthorn
North Melbourne +8.5 vs Carlton
Richmond/Port Adelaide u179.5
West Coast/Sydney u181.5

Collingwood and Essendon are my favorite plays, so you may consider throwing a little extra on those two plays. I like Collingwood to keep this one within a kick and while I’m fully aware that Western may easily beat Essendon by 100, I’ve got this one pegged closer to 50.

Only the plays specified as plays of the week will be graded, but if you’re feeling froggy, you can consider betting a little on Geelong (+140) and Collingwood (+175) to win outright. I also have leans on some totals, with Adelaide/Fremantle u180.5 and Melbourne/Gold Coast u183.5.

And in case you’re wondering how things are shaking out early this year, the spread plays in the Opening Round went 1-2, Round 1 went 3-2, Round 2 I had no plays, Round 3 went 3-0. That’s 7-4 to start the year. Totals have gone 6-5, with overs going 3-1 and unders going 3-4.

Let me know if you’re tailing!

If you’ll recall, I gave out my Super Bowl play last week, taking New England +4.5. I still like that a lot. In fact, there hasn’t been a larger Super Bowl spread in 16 years(!!).

Also, I think the total is pretty fair here. I don’t see much value on a play either way, though if forced, I’d lean very slightly to the over. That brings us to…

Live Bets!

There are a few situations I want to highlight here. One, regarding the total, is that:

If the total drops below 42, take the live over

If the total climbs to as high as 52, take the live under

That’s a ten point window where this game is likely to land, in my opinion.

The ideal live total scenario is a low scoring 1H followed by a higher scoring 2H, because that meshes well with a recent trend in CCGs and Super Bowls:

The halftime underdog covers the 2H spread 64% of the time

Consider placing a spread bet on the losing team at halftime.

Prop Bets!

These are just for fun! Tail them, fade them, drop your own plays in the comments. Good luck!

Heads

Seahawks to win coin toss

1st play of game is a rush

Drake Maye o35.5 rushing yards

Kayshon Boutte longest rec o17.5

Kenneth Walker u20 rushes

Sam Darnold longest completion u35.5

Seahawks by 1-3 points +460

• Analytics of the “Hockey Hail Mary”: Al explores the success rate of pulling the goalie in the NHL. While it often feels like an exercise in futility, statistics show it works (results in a goal) roughly 10% to 20% of the time—better odds than a traditional football Hail Mary.

• National Championship Post-Mortem: A deep dive into the Indiana vs. Miami title game. The crew discusses the “likability” of Indiana, the demographic makeup of the Hoosier fanbase, and the heartbreak of Miami losing on a final-play interception.

• The Price of Loyalty: A breakdown of the staggering costs of following a team through a playoff run. For a family of four, attending multiple bowl games and a National Championship can easily soar to a $30,000–$40,000 expense.

• Hard Rock Nostalgia: The guys reminisce about the “Golden Hour” at Hard Rock Stadium and the venue’s rotating identity, from Dolphin Stadium and Landshark to Sun Life and its current naming rights.

• Super Bowl Preview & USC Legacies: * The QB Matchup: Drake May (Patriots) vs. Sam Darnold (Seahawks).

  • Trivia: The bizarre but true story of Sam Darnold’s grandfather, Dick Hammer—a firefighter and original Marlboro Man.

  • The Lines: With Seattle favored at -4.5 and an over/under of 46, the guys debate whether New England can start a new dynasty or if “regression” is coming for the stat-heads.

Super Bowl Sunday is still more than a week away and we’re left in that weird football dead zone where the season is essentially over and teams are jettisoning coaches across the league, scouting players for the draft, churning out mock draft after mock draft while there is still one more (real) game left to be played (apologies to the Pro Bowl).

What’s the deal with branding and no one being able to even say Super Bowl? Everything is “the Big Game” or whatever. I know it has to do with promotions and profiting off another company’s branding but I hate it. Everyone knows what you mean! Anyway, NFL goons, please leave me alone.

I’m sure as *THE BIG GAME* approaches, I’ll probably put out some fun prop bets just for fun for you all to tag along on. For instance, I typically bet the national anthem over/under (though in recent years, the practice sessions have been leaked, scrapping the bet by the big day), the coin toss, maybe the color of the gatorade, etc. I might even whip up some player props I like too. But first, let’s recap Conference Championship Week.

CCG Recap

I gave out two plays last week, and as has become a trend in the postseason, they split. New England failed to cover in what became a second half blizzard. Naturally, I feel like they would have covered easily without the snow, but I guess we’ll never know! The Rams and Seahawks sailed over. Should’ve bet racks on that one.

My numbers leaned Seattle and I ended up betting on them as well, so I came out ahead, even if you didn’t. Sorry about that! I gotta have some action ykwim???

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Super Bowl Plays

Just one play here.

NE +4.5

*in my absolute best Borat voice* My numbers(!) have this one at New England -3.5 and the total at 46. While I don’t like the Pats to win outright, 4.5 points feels like way too much for a matchup between great offenses and great defenses. Both of these teams’ units (haha, units) rank in the top 5 in most metrics. Idk, maybe I made that up, but the stats I look at have both offenses and both defenses highly ranked.

I think the line is where it’s at because the Pats have played two underwhelming games offensively which just so happened to be against two of the best defenses in the league and one of which happened in a blizzard for 30 minutes. Kind of tough sledding there.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks seem inevitable. Also, I like the Seahawks and while I contend that if this exact Patriots team had a different logo and colors, they’d be a fan favorite, I also am sick as shit of seeing them be successful. Making the Super Bowl is good enough. The Hawks can take it home though. That’s a much more fun story *to me*, and that’s what’s important.

So Pats to cover, Seahawks to win. That’s what I’m pulling for.

If you were forcing me to pick a side on the total, I’d lean very slightly to the over. When factoring in Red Zone performance, the total should be closer to 48.5, but including that metric in my projections is still a work in progress.

Let me know if you have any player props or game bets you like! I tend to spray the board for the Super Bowl.

One Last Thing!

If you’ve found these write-ups enjoyable and/or profitable, please share with a pal or two! Would love to get our subscribers up over a hundred, especially since there’s likely to be a little downtime over the next two or three months.

We may have something for March Madness, and Aussie Rules Football kicks off in March, but I may not have any plays there until April.

Thanks for tagging along!

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Buffalo dropped the ball and the weather seemed to affect what should have been a fun one in Chicago. I mean, I guess it was still pretty fun as it was. You know what I mean.

New England came through though. I hope you were able to decipher the plays there. I had New England -11 with a total of 42.5. They won by 12 and the scores tallied 44 points. While I leaned over, it didn’t qualify as a play at 42.5. So that puts us at 3-3 last week.

Only two games this week, so I’ll go into a little detail on each one.

AFC Championship Game

The New England Patriots head to Denver to play the Bo Nix-less Broncos. My numbers take the full season into account, so I want you to know that my numbers are already factoring in Bo Nix playing for the Broncos, which certainly won’t happen.

I’ve got the Patriots by 14. I’ve also got the total in this one pegged at about 45 points. With the current spread at New England -4.5, there’s tons of value on the Pats at the moment, even before factoring in that Jarrett Stidham will be seeing his first meaningful snaps in about 8 years and his first playoff snaps ever. Against what may be the league’s best defense.

I think the talking heads and the casual fans have been going on about how good Denver’s defense is and how well Stidham played in the preseason as if the Broncos are about to go play against the Raiders. The Patriots are a juggernaut. I hate to be the one to tell you this. If they don’t have the best defense in the league, there’s certainly an argument to be made for the unit. And offensively, you’ve got the NFL MVP frontrunner leading an offense that you could also argue is one of the best in the league.

I think there are a few things keeping this line where it’s at currently:

1. New England’s offense didn’t look very good against…Houston’s defense. Houston’s D might be the only one you could argue is better than New England’s. The Pats won that heavyweight bout easily.

2. Denver beat the golden boy, or rather, Josh Allen threw that game away. Not to take anything away from the Broncos, but the Bills’ defense is not good and Josh Allen made a ton of bad decisions with the ball and still had a shot to beat Denver in the Mile High City.

3. It’s early enough that the volume of bets hasn’t really come in on this game yet. I expect this line to move.

I imagine this line will close closer to 7. It’ll still be off. I suspect Vegas will lose their asses on this one. Unfortunate for them, and unfortunate for Bo Nix.

Play: New England -4.5

NFC Championship Game

The LA Rams travel to Seattle for the second time this season to face the Seahawks in a winner-take-all Game 3 of this three game series.

You’ll hear all week how even this matchup is and it’s true. These two teams have played a couple of the best games of the season, rivaled only by maybe the Chicago/Green Bay games.

But one thing you probably won’t hear about is how much of these two games the Rams led for. The Rams led for 53:38 in the first game. Despite the Seahawks trailing by as much as 9, they still had a FG attempt to win the game as the clock expired. Then, in Seattle, the Rams led for 20:57, leading by as much as 16 in the 4th Quarter.

The Rams only trailed for 22:46 over the two games combined.

The Seahawks trailed for 1:14:35.

So my point is this: what happens if Seattle isn’t playing from behind the entire game?

I trust that will be a point of emphasis in Seattle this week. When we see teams play three times in one season, there’s always some added wrinkles that end up breaking the game open. While on one hand, I can see why everyone expects this game to be close, but on the other, I think it’s quite possible that if Seattle is the one to build the early lead, that the Rams will have a much harder time keeping this one close.

My numbers have this game pegged at Seattle -3.5 and the total at 50.

The actual line is Seattle -2.5 and the total is 46.5.

Play: LAR/SEA o46.5

Good luck and let me know in the comments if you’ve got a play you like this week!

Week 18 Recap

So let’s start by recapping the Week 18 plays I gave out here and tying a bow on the regular season. I gave out 20 plays in total, going 7-4 on spread plays and 5-4 on totals.

That puts the final regular season tally at 96-91-4. That’s about -3.64u on the season. Oh well. I found a good system around Week 11 for setting my own lines and those plays went 49-27 on spreads and 34-28 on totals. The totals part needs some work still, but 64%+ on spread plays helped us get back over .500 on the season. We’ll get ‘em next year.

Wild Card Recap

Not that this serves any purpose for you, the reader, but my plays this past week were:

LAR -10.5
LAR/CAR o46.5
GB +1.5*
GB/CHI o45.5
JAX +1.5
SF +4.5
NE -3.5

***HOU/PIT o38.5***

So a few things here.

One, there’s still a play available! I’m on the over tonight! Go bet it!

Two, you’ll notice an asterisk above next to the Green Bay play. That’s because despite my numbers showing value on the Packers, I actually bet this one the other way based on a few factors including recent performance, weather, and coaching. We’ll grade it as a loss here, but it wasn’t one for me!

We’re 4-3 at this point, with the total tonight still in play.

Also, my numbers on the other totals didn’t cross thresholds, but I had leans on the under in all three of those matchups and they all went under. Yay me.

And now, onto the divisional round…

Divisional Round Plays

BUF -1.5
BUF/DEN o46.5
SF/SEA o45.5
LAR -3.5
LAR/CHI o51.5

Lastly, we’re still waiting to see which team the Patriots host next week.

I’ve got the line against HOU as -11 with a total of 42.5, and the line against PIT as -13.5 with a total around 49.5. I doubt we see New England hang numbers this big, so my guess is I’ll likely be on the Patriots at home again.

As a reminder, I like more than a FG of cushion on my numbers, so against HOU, I’d take NE laying 7.5 or less, over 39, or under 46. For PIT, I’d take NE laying 10 or less, over 46, or under 53.

If the Patriots’ spread or total warrants a play as described above, I’ll be counting it.

Good luck!

Week 16 plays went 8-4, bringing the season long tally to 84-83-4.

The picks I had last week, which I did not give out here, went 6-4 on spreads and 5-6 on totals, so basically a wash.

Here’s what I’ve got this week, and keep in mind that team motivation is a huge reason some of these spreads are so far off, so I’ll probably pare my plays down significantly, even though the numbers like a lot more plays here.

NFL Plays

SEA -1.5
DAL -3.5
CLE +7.5
GB +7.5
JAX -13.5
LAR -7.5
LAC +12.5
NE -10.5
PHI -4
BUF -6.5
PIT +3.5
DET/CHI o50.5
DAL/NYG o49.5
GB/MIN o35.5
ARI/LAR o46.5
LAC/DEN o37.5
KC/LV o36.5
WAS/PHI o39
NYJ/BUF o38
BAL/PIT o40.5

Good luck!

Ok. I’ve been tweaking my spreadsheets throughout the season, and it seems like I’ve got the spreads dialed in fairly well. The totals are skewing too heavily toward the overs, so I’m going to need to work on those. I’ll give them out here in case you want something to measure your numbers against, but we won’t be counting them en masse anymore until I sort that out.

The other thing I look at most weeks is the zig zag theory. If you’re unfamiliar, you bet the teams that did not cover the previous week and who are playing teams that did cover the previous week. This has historically bore out profitable, and typically hits at a roughly 60% clip. This year, zig zags are 50-42, or 54%. Still profitable but barely (you’d be up about 3.5 units at -110 odds).

I usually factor in zig zags, ELO, yardage, and scoring data into my predictions. The spreads I’ve been tracking over the past five weeks are 27-12. This is obviously too small a sample size, but I think the zig zags are weighing down the performance on my spread plays as I’ve leaned toward the zig zags more heavily while tweaking.

All of that is to say that despite a down year, I think I’ve got my numbers in as good a spot as ever. We’ve got three weeks left in the regular season, so we’re approaching that point where each team’s want-to is probably more important than whether they covered the previous week or how they performed over the entire season. So the while I’d like to open things up and play a little more loose, I’ll probably still air on the side of caution here.

Full season plays are 76-79-4. That’s down about 9.84 units. Let’s try to get back to even before the playoffs.

NFL Plays

Seattle +1.5
Philly -6.5
Green Bay -1.5
Buffalo -10
LA Chargers +2.5
NY Jets +4.5
Carolina +3
Jacksonville +3
Pittsburgh +7
PIT/DET o51.5
New England +3
MIN/NYG o43.5

Here are some plays I’m passing on this week and why:

Kansas City -3.5 - Mahomes is out. That should throw all the numbers out the window. The Chiefs are still a much more talented side than the Titans, but we’re not in a spot to bet question mark spots here. I’ll just lay off.

Miami +1.5 - Newly eliminated from playoff contention, on a short week, Burrow back for Cincy. I know the Bengals are eliminated as well, but the season long numbers aren’t relevant here.

Indianapolis +6.5 - The Colts have a great defense, but the offense is an issue with Rivers at the helm. He played admirably last week, but this 49ers defense will eat him alive. I might bet San Fran instead.

Here are the totals my numbers like this week, just for confirmation purposes. Not official plays.

LAR/SEA o44.5
PHI/WAS o44.5
GB/CHI o46.5
LAC/DAL o49.5
CIN/MIA o50.5
TB/CAR o45.5

So I gave out five plays last week. Three of them covered easily, one fell apart at halftime, and the other fell short late. 3-2. That moves us to 70-70-4 on the year. Stinky!

But! There’s a big but here.

I had ten overs I liked but since they were all overs, I thought maybe my numbers weren’t quite dialed in well enough. Well guess how those ten overs did?

They went 9-1.

We got a little help on the Denver over with the inexplicable last second FG which both hit the over and got the Raiders to cover, and then in the MNF game, we got on the total early and hit that one by the hook in OT.

Maybe my numbers are good? Who can say.

NFL Plays

Atlanta +4.5
Chargers +4.5
New England +1.5
BUF/NE u50.5
Las Vegas +11.5
LV/PHI o38.5
Arizona +10
Indianapolis +13.5
IND/SEA o42.5
Minnesota +6
Miami +3
MIA/PIT o42.5
CLE/CHI o40.5
WAS/NYG o47.5
DET/LAR u55.5

15 plays this week. I thought about pulling the Colts spread and total, but it’s such a big spread and the Colts are in crunch time, so why not leave it and see if they show some life? Feel free to leave those two off if you want.

NFL Futures Check-In

Just a short thought evaluating the likelihood of each of our midseason win total bets hitting at this point.

PHI o12.5 - LOSS
KC o10.5 - LOSS

IND o11.5 - Life support.
TB o10.5 - Life support.
GB u10.5 - Life support.
MIA u6.5 - Life support.

CIN u5.5 - Feels real bad.

DET o10.5 - Maybe? Hopefully?
NO o4.5 - Maybe. Feels good.
ARI u5.5 - Likely.

HOU o8.5 - Just one more win gets this one home.
BAL u9.5 - Just one more loss gets this one home.

So the way things stand, it’s looking like 5-7 at best currently. Houston and Baltimore are both +130 or better, which helps.

63-59-4.

How do I follow that up? With the most depressing Thanksgiving ever. I gave you 5 Turkey Day plays and they all lost. Then we lost on Black Friday too.

0-6 to start the week and back into the hole we go.

By the time Sunday rolled around, we were past it, going 4-3, but the damage is done. We’re 4-9 this week with New England -7.5 pending.

67-68-4. Tough going this year. I wouldn’t blame you for passing on these, but here are the plays I like this week.

NFL Plays

Detroit -3
Atlanta +7.5
Minnesota +1.5
Miami -2.5
Kansas City -3

I have a lot of totals I like, but they’re all overs. I’d play these at your own risk. I won’t track these as plays, but I’ll lay them out for you in case you need confirmation.

SEA/ATL o43.5
CIN/BUF o51.5
TEN/CLE o33.5
WAS/MIN o41.5
MIA/NYJ o41.5
NO/TB o42.5
PIT/BAL o43.5
DEN/LV o40.5
CHI/GB o44.5
PHI/LAC o40.5

First, I gave you Fresno St -2.5 last week. That hit and it brought our regular season total to 38-21 on official plays. Mighty fine work if you ask me.

We even hit on 3 of the 4 bonus plays in our revenge week. I’m pretty sure the bonus plays were right around .500 on the year.

So with the regular season in the books, let’s look at the conference championship matchups this week and see if we can do a little window shopping.

No Official Plays This Week

First and foremost, there are no official plays this week. Maybe that’s a bummer, but it allows us the freedom to simply enjoy good football and throw some beer money on the sides we like.

Miami and the ACC Chaos Theory

As a Miami Hurricane fan/alum, I’m already working on the mental gymnastics to get Miami into the playoff. Here are my favorite options at the moment:

1. Miami jumps Notre Dame based on nothing but fan peer pressure.

2. Miami jumps BYU if they lose to Texas Tech again.

3. Ole Miss does the honorable thing and backs out of the playoff now that Lane Kiffin has left for greener pastures at LSU.

None of those are going to happen, but a guy can delude himself for a week.

If you aren’t fully up-to-date on the College Football Playoff, there’s a particularly fun scenario I can’t stop myself from rooting for: the ACC being left out of the playoff completely.

If 7-5 Duke wins the ACC, they are almost certainly going to be ranked behind the American Athletic Conference champion (UNT or Tulane), AND the Sun Belt conference champion (JMU, barring a huge upset).

That would leave Duke as the sixth highest ranked conference champion and out of the playoff altogether. With Miami currently outside looking in, there would be no ACC representative in the 12 team field. Embarrassing. Delightful. Chaotic. College Football at its finest.

Beer Money Bets

All of that aside, here are the sides I like this week, just for fun.

Troy +21.5

The Troy Boys are thriving at the right time. They’re much worse than James Madison, but more than 3 TDs feels like too much.

BYU +13.5

Miami’s hopes rely on the committee feeling bad for them and finding an excuse to jump a team like BYU. Comparing records, BYU’s more deserving. So Miami needs to see BYU get blown out. I think they keep this one respectable.

Virginia -3.5

The other fun thing to root for, ACC chaos, is almost certainly not going to happen. The ACC is going to fix this one so they get a team into the playoff. UVA by a touchdown feels right.

For the past few seasons, I’ve been betting on Aussie Rules Football to decent success. I decided this year that I would apply the same methodology to the women’s contest. The women’s league runs essentially from the end of the men’s season until just this past week.

Last week I gave you North Melbourne -23.5 in the Grand Final, saying it should be closer to 45. The final: North Melbourne 56 - 16 Brisbane. Sometimes the numbers work out right.

That puts the women’s season tally at 31-26.

It could’ve been better, but we came out ahead.

Thanks for following along and hopefully we put a little green in your pocket.

I promise, no more Aussie Rules until March. Cheers.

The only potential plays I had last week were some non-con games where the spreads come out later in the week. The only one that fit the bill was actually Mercer +26.5 which I think ended up available at most books by Saturday. That’s graded as a loss.

That brings the season long tally to 37-21. The bonus plays went 1-4. Those haven’t been good. I’ll continue to give them here, but I’d only use it as confirmation if you like a side, or maybe you can fade them.

Official Plays

Fresno St -2.5

We were on the Bulldogs last week and they didn’t come close to covering. This time, I’ve got them closer to a full touchdown favorite.

Bonus Plays

Louisiana Tech +2.5
Syracuse +3.5
Troy +6.5
Washington St -13.5

What’s funny, looking at these all laid down together, is I’m pretty sure I lost the last time I had a play on all five of these sides. So call it revenge week. Let’s go get those Ls back!

Good luck and enjoy your holiday weekend folks!

6-8-1 with Carolina +7 pending. Updated season long total: 63-58-4.

Thanksgiving slate is fast approaching, so I’m hitting you with the plays a little early.

NFL Plays

Detroit -2.5*
GB/DET u49.5*
Kansas City -3*
KC/DAL u52*
Baltimore -7
Philly -7
Jacksonville -6.5
Houston +4.5
HOU/IND o44.5
ATL/NYJ o39.5
Carolina +10.5*
Las Vegas +10*
Denver -6.5
New England -7.5

We’re already seeing movement on a number of these, so I’m firing this off a little sooner and without the fantastic polish and summary you’ve surely come to love.

I’m seeing these numbers at common books and/or these numbers are widely available. They might not be when you take a look! Try to get these numbers or better at -110 odds or better. Asterisk indicates lines that are already moving. I usually don’t mind an extra hook or paying a little juice to get on a better number (like -2.5 instead of -3 at -115, or taking the +3 instead of +2.5 at -115), but definitely don’t cross any key numbers (3, 4, 6, 7).

I might have a couple more plays pending the results of MNF. I might write up a little more and add those plays in a separate post, or I might not.

Have a good holiday folks!

So the women’s season has been a bit of a betting mixed bag. North Melbourne won last week, but failed to cover. Sometimes the numbers get squirrelly in the playoffs.

So on the season, we’re 30-26. That’s not good! We’re basically up around 1 unit. So let’s put that unit on a side in the final and call it a day.

Grand Final Matchup

I did correctly predict both sides here, where we have the North Melbourne Kangaroos and the Brisbane Lions facing off for all the marbles.

So the numbers say North Melbourne should win by 45.

These two sides played each other all the way back in Round 5 (in September), and North Melbourne won then by 29 in Brisbane.

This one’s in Melbourne and the Kangaroos are currently favored by just 23.5.

So add all that up, and what do you get? Let’s look at a recent, talented common opponent for context.

North just beat Melbourne by 10 at home. Brisbane just beat Melbourne away by 13 in the first round of the playoffs. Brisbane also beat Melbourne by 9 at home a few weeks before that. Outside of those games, Brisbane has been destroying opponents by 30+. Melbourne is the best test either of these sides can face, outside of themselves. So where do that leave us?

This line stinks. It’s making me want to bet Brisbane, especially when the numbers say to lay it with North and we just did that unsuccessfully. But this whole season has essentially been “bet big on North Melbourne and see what happens” so:

North Melbourne -23.5

If we win, we’ll have netted around 2 units on the season. If we lose, it’s a wash!

Good luck!

Hi!

You may remember me from such emails as “Al’s NCAAF Week 13 Plays” or “Al’s NFL Week 12 Plays”! I’m not Troy McClure, and I want to let you know about some win totals futures bets I placed yesterday!

Feel free to bet these if you can still get these numbers at reasonable odds. Or don’t! You’re a fully formed human capable of making your own decisions and you don’t need me to tell you what to do with you money (bet it on these win totals though).

Win Total Overs

These are teams I’m bullish on based on their performance to date, their current win total, their remaining schedule, the price, and their projected win total at season’s end.

New Orleans o4.5 -165

The Saints have only managed 2 wins on the season, against a bad Giants team and a Panthers team no one seems to know what to make of. They’ve got at least three winnable games left on the schedule with the Dolphins, Jets, and Titans. They also play the Panthers again. Right there, they can potentially clear this number. Add in a pair of division games against the struggling Falcons, and the Saints have a decent shot to hit 5 wins.

Detroit o10.5 -130

The Lions are 6-4 and all of their remaining games are winnable. Add in that almost all of their remaining games are indoors, and I think there’s a good chance they clear this number by a full game. This is a 12 win team whose floor is 10 wins. That’s good odds!

Indianapolis o11.5 -175

Some people aren’t sure about this Colts team. They’ve already won 8 games which means we just need above .500 play down a stretch that includes Houston twice and Jacksonville twice. If they drop any of those, they can still get wins against Kansas City this week, or Seattle or San Francisco later. If you believe in the Colts, this is an easy bet.

Philadelphia o12.5 -165

Look, -165 for a team to hit 13 wins sounds absurd but this Eagles team is great and they’ve got winnable games throughout their remaining schedule. They might win 15.

Tampa Bay o10.5 -120

The Bucs are 6-4 and are seemingly unable to win big. You might think they’ll struggle to hit 11 wins. But if you look at their schedule, they’ve played a ridiculous slate to date, with Philly, Seattle, San Fran, Detroit, New England and Buffalo in their rear-view. While they still have the Rams this week, the schedule is smooth sailing after that. Arizona, New Orleans, Atlanta, Miami and Carolina twice. That’s six games they should win. We’ve even left room for them to drop one AND lose to LA.

Kansas City o10.5 +115

The Chiefs are .500 this late in the season for probably the first time with Mahomes under center. Everyone’s panicking. “The Chiefs dynasty is over!” I think two things can be true at the same time. The dynasty may be over (or it may not!), but this team can still hit 11 wins AND AT PLUS MONEY! Dallas, Houston, Chargers, Titans, Broncos rematch, and Raiders still await. Tell me, with confidence, they won’t win all of those.

Houston o8.5 +130

The Texans were supposed to be a Super Bowl contender this year. They flamed out early and have been left for dead since November hit. However, they’re still 5-5 and they have one of the best defenses in the league. If the offense can pull their weight, they should be able to hit 8 wins easily, which means we’ve got 4 coin flip opportunities for their harder matchups. It’s worth a little beer money to find out if we’re right.

Win Total Unders

Alright, you’re probably tired of all the reasons teams are going to straighten up and fly right down the stretch. Here are the teams that are tanking.

Arizona u5.5 -105

The Cardinals have 3 wins already. We can only afford two more dubs and they’ve got 7 left to play. HOWEVA! They face a tough Jags team this week followed by the Buc and Rams. They don’t know who they want at QB. The offense is banged up. I think this team quits down the stretch. While they can beat teams like Houston, Atlanta, or Cincy, I think it’s just as likely that they lose all of those. Worth the dice roll at near-even odds.

Cincinnati u5.5 +135

Is Joe Burrow coming back? Maybe. Thought probably not, I’d say. If this team was in playoff contention, I wouldn’t touch this. But despite some winnable games to end the year, there’s zero chance they win on for another month, with the Pats, Ravens, Bills, and Ravens again on deck.

Baltimore u9.5 +135

I know, I just said the Ravens are going to beat the Bengals twice still. But even when that happens and they beat the Jets this week, that’s still just 8 wins with two games against the Steelers remaining, plus matchups against the Pats and at Green Bay. They’ve got to win two of those for this one to fail. It’s worth the plus money shot.

Miami u6.5 +115

SLP Boys avert your eyes. The Fins are down bad. Firing Chris Grier seems to have livened them up, but it looks like they can’t get out of their own way every snap. Is this team going to win against the Steelers, Bucs or Pats? If not, then they’ve got to win all three against the Saints, Jets, and Bengals. Even if they steal a win against a good team, whose to say they don’t give it right back against a bad one?

Green Bay u10.5 -160

Finally, the Packers have five division games remaining. Besides those, they play at Denver and host the Ravens. Now, it’s possible they win those two, but even if they do, they’ve got to win 3 division games to clear this mark. I think it’s too likely that they drop one against the Broncos or Ravens, which then means they’ve got to win 4 of their 5 remaining division games. It’s tough sledding to hit 11 wins.

Top plays went 3-2, the rest of the slate went 5-4-1, for a total on the week of 8-6-1.

A couple of tough breaks too, with the Packers pushing, the Texans blowing it, and the Chargers only scoring 6 points to keep that over from hitting. There were 3 drives in that game that got within FG range but ended in turnovers on down. If just one of those drives settles for 3 instead, we’d have cleared it. Oh well, we won a couple on the hook too, so them’s the breaks!

That brings the season tally to 57-50-3. We’re above .500 and just above the break even with the juice. Over the last three weeks, we’re 29-16, hitting at 64%.

Let’s keep the vibes good.

NFL Plays

Here are my favorite plays this week:

Houston +5.5
Cincinnati +8
Minnesota +6.5
Detroit -10.5
Arizona +2.5
Las Vegas -3

And here are the rest of this week’s plays:

Indianapolis +3
Seattle -13
New York Jets +13.5
Dallas +3
Atlanta +2
Carolina +7
PIT/CHI o45
NYG/DET u50
CLE/LV o36.5
ATL/NO o39.5

That’s 16 plays this week.

Let’s see if we can keep cranking out net positive weeks!

Oh! I almost forgot about the 1H u24.5s. Here are some options this week.

1H Under 24.5s

Last week’s 1H unders went 3-3, bringing the season long tally to 15-11.

NYG/DET u24.5 -110
TB/LAR u24.5 -115
CAR/SF u24.5 -130

2-0 on official plays brings the season long tally to 37-20. I wish there were more plays every week. I’ve tried to keep you sated with bonus plays, but those haven’t fared as well, sitting a little under .500, so why force it?

No official plays this week…yet.

I’m pending some of these non-con lines, so I’ll give them to you here with the numbers I’d take them at, and if they open at or better than these, take them and they’ll count. And if not, it’s an in-play target to consider. I’ll also include the numbers to fade these teams in case they open way off of the projected lines I have.

Official Plays

Texas A&M -52.5 or better (Samford +81 or better)
Alabama -47.5 or better (Eastern Illinois +66 or better)
Auburn -13 or better (Mercer +26.5 or better)
Clemson -35 or better (Furman +46.5 or better)

Here are the bonus plays if you still want those.

Bonus Plays

Georgia -44.5
Louisiana Tech -1.5
Maryland +13.5
Air Force +3.5
Fresno St -2.5

Good luck!

The record for the season is 30-25, sitting right around 55%, which is grinding out a very small profit on these plays.

Last week, I didn’t have a play for you, but I had two leans on Carlton and Melbourne. Naturally, those teams covered though we don’t count those in the season tally.

I also said I might have a play on North Melbourne this week and, shocker, I do.

The Women’s league has only been in operation since the 2017 season and even then, they’ve only grown into the 99 matches played over the past two seasons. In that time, North Melbourne has dominated. While other teams won the first seven premierships as the league was growing, the North Melbourne side started in 2019 and took a few years to get their ducks in a row, but they finished as runner ups in 2023 and won it all last year. They’re looking to repeat and they haven’t lost since that 2023 Grand Final loss to Brisbane.

The Kangaroos are the clear favorites to lift the trophy this year.

That said, Melbourne and Brisbane are clearly the next best teams in the competition. So a lot of this season has just been to bet on the heavy favorites to cover the spread and it’s largely worked. I’d expect North Melbourne and Brisbane to face off in the Grand Final. So here are my plays:

North Melbourne -29.5

I’ve got this one closer to 45 points.

I’m not going to bet on the Brisbane spread because there’s not enough value on it, but you might consider it or maybe bet them on the moneyline. I have the Lions winning by around 7 and they’re favored by 11.5.

That’s it. Maybe we’ll see a play for the Grand Final. If not, thanks for tagging along this year!

Two weeks ago, I managed to finally dig out from the hole I dug to start the season. After some particularly square weeks got us dug in pretty good, we got back in the black.

Last week, we went 8-5-2, pushing on the Colts and the Giants. If you got better numbers, bully for you. If you got worse numbers, sorry. That’s why I try to send these out earlier in the week before the lines move too much.

This is a good spot to point out that I generally give out the best number available at a common book, or the most common line available. If you’re able to shop for a better line at the same price, I highly recommend doing so. I do not recommend buying a better line.

So if I give you a play at -7, that’s assuming -110 odds. If you can find a book offering -6.5 at -110 odds, bet it there. If you find a book offering -6.5 at -115 or -120, it’s better to bet the -7 at -110 odds. I hope that clears things up. Let me know if you have any questions in the comments!

On the season, we’re now 49-44-2.

Here are this week’s plays, now that we’re heating up!

NFL Plays

Here are my favorite plays this week:

Washington +2.5
Carolina +3.5
Minnesota -3
Jacksonville +3
Cleveland +7.5

And here are the rest of this week’s plays:

New England -12.5
Buffalo -5.5
Houston -6.5
Green Bay -7
GB/NYG o42.5
Pittsburgh -5.5
LAC/JAX o43.5
Seattle +3
Arizona +3
SF/ARI u48.5

1H Under 24.5s

The 1H under 24.5s went 1-2 last week.

These are 12-8 since I’ve been tracking them, which is really good for a -110 bet, but most of these are paying a little more juice to get this number. I think we’re still a couple units up playing these, but I should probably try to figure out the exact gains.

Here are this week’s best options:

CHI/MIN u24.5 -115
CIN/PIT u24.5 -120
TB/BUF u24.5 -120
SEA/LAR u24.5 -120
SF/ARI u24.5 -130
DAL/LV u24.5 -110

You may be able to shop these around multiple books to find better odds.

That’s it for this week! Good luck with your action!