Nice little week ‘round these parts. 4-1 on full unit plays and 4-0 on half unit plays puts us at +4.22 units for the week. Overall, we’re 29-20 and up 3.55 units on the season.

There were a couple of sweats and luckily we came out on the right side of those. The lone loss was Essendon +34.5 and even that probably should’ve covered if it weren’t for a terrible day kicking by the Bombers. They kicked 8 goals on 21 scores. On average, that number is between 50-60%, meaning they should’ve kicked around 10-12 goals with that many opportunities.

Let’s keep rolling.

AFL Plays of the Week

Richmond/Essendon u175.5
St. Kilda +25.5 at Fremantle
North Melbourne +10.5 vs Gold Coast
Sydney +10.5 at Geelong
West Coast +44.5 at Collingwood
Collingwood/West Coast o180.5
Port Adelaide -10.5 vs Carlton
GWS +14.5 vs Brisbane
Adelaide +15.5 at Hawthorn*
Richmond +12.5 vs Essendon*

10 plays, 9 units

There are several totals that aren’t out yet this week for some reason. If there are plays to be had among those once they’re released, I’ll comment below with my plays there and I will be tracking those as full or half unit plays as specified.

My Explanations

Dreamtime at the G! That’s what the matchup between Richmond and Essendon is called and it usually results in a hard fought contest. Richmond dominated the series in their not-so-distant heyday, but they’ve dropped three in a row now. The stakes are a little different this year, as this may well be the battle for the wooden spoon which is ignominious title “awarded” to the team that finishes last in the standings each year. So at least there’s something on the line for these two this year. I’m also on the under.

St. Kilda is trying to scrape their way out of the middle of the pack, something they’ve been trying to do for nigh on a decade now. This is a spot versus one of the league’s best to measure up against. They probably won’t win outright, but they can keep it within 25.

Gold Coast has been stellar at home, but this one’s on the road. Not saying that the Kangaroos have a distinct advantage there, but they’ve shown fight this year.

Sydney’s played excellent footy this year, but their recent matches have shown signs that their grasp on the top of the ladder may be slipping. This is an important one against a Geelong side hot on their heels.

Collingwood might win this one by 120, but they also haven’t shown signs this year of being the Collingwood of old. The Eagles have had some spunk too. I’m on the over as well, so if Collingwood does end up blowing this one out, they ought to be able to clear the 180.5 while they’re at it.

Port’s one of those teams that’s way further down the ladder than they deserve to be, real close to Carlton actually. These sides shouldn’t be that close. Port should clear the 10.5 points they’re laying at home.

I mentioned recently how volatile GWS’ game has been this year. Last week they laid an egg. This week, maybe they bounce back against the Lions who just took one on the chin from the Cats.

Lastly, I like the Crows to keep it close against the Hawks on the road. Hawthorn’s strung together three disappointing results in a row and are due for a bounce back, but they may have to wait a week as the Crows are flying high, winners of three straight.

Ok, we’ve stacked a couple winning weeks in a row now. I gave two half-unit plays last week and those split. 5-3 for the week and that’s good for +1.4 units.

On the season as a whole, we’re now 21-19 but still in the hole 0.67 units. Maybe this is the week we get back in the black.

I’ve decided I like the half-unit format for plays my numbers like but I don’t feel great about, or the other way around. Also for plays that my numbers consistently like, but by a small margin. There are a lot of those plays this week, unfortunately.

AFL Plays of the Week

Port Adelaide +26.5 at Gold Coast
Melbourne/Hawthorn o183.5
Essendon +34.5 vs Fremantle
Richmond +41.5 at St. Kilda
West Coast +30.5 vs GWS
Collingwood +29.5 at Sydney*
Sydney/Collingwood u182.5*
Melbourne +18.5 vs Hawthorn*
Carlton/Western u187.5*

*0.5 unit plays

9 plays, 7 units

My Explanations

Port has a terrible record but they’ve played a ton of close matches. Their last three losses have been by 3, 1, and 2 points. I have no idea why Gold Coast is laying such a big number here.

I like Melbourne to hang in this matchup against Hawthorn and these are two of the best offenses in the league.

Essendon isn’t good and Freo is very good, but Freo’s on the road for this one and Essendon has covered this number four times this year. Freo can cruise to a victory without covering.

I’m betting all the worst teams this week. I’m sure that’s going to work well out for me. Richmond stinks but St. Kilda shouldn’t be laying 40+ points against anyone either. Let’s hope for a low scoring affair.

Same story with West Coast. They’ve shown some fight so far and GWS is far too inconsistent to be laying big numbers here. The Giants may win by 100, but they’re also capable of losing this one outright. I’ll take the points.

Sydney, in Sydney, is a diabolical matchup right now. They’re rolling opponents. Collingwood doesn’t have it this year, but they’ll give the Swans their best. The Magpies love to get in dogfights and when my numbers lean with taking the points AND the under, I’m sure one of them is bound to hit.

Let me know if you’re tailing!

Back in the black last week, going 4-2. We hit on Collingwood, the Adelaide/Port under, St. Kilda, and the Sydney/Melbourne over. We lost on Freo and the West Coast/Richmond under. I gave the caveat that Western could cover against Freo easily if they got healthy, and they did, but I grade the plays as I give them! Hopefully you checked the injury report on that one.

We’re at 16-16 on the season, which is losing the vig. So we’re down about 2.08 units. Let’s see if we can get above water this week.

AFL Plays of the Week

Fremantle -3.5 vs Hawthorn
Port Adelaide +1.5 vs Western
Brisbane/Carlton o185.5
North Melbourne +27.5 vs Sydney
North Melbourne/Sydney u192.5
Essendon +44.5 at GWS
Carlton +42.5 at Brisbane*
St. Kilda +15.5 at Gold Coast*

*0.5 unit plays

8 plays, 7 units.

My Explanations

Freo is laying points at home against arguably the best team in the league? Smells a little fishy. But the Dockers are playing great footy right now, and Hawthorn has to travel across country for this one, plus they’ve got room enough at the top of the ladder to let this one slip past them.

Port is sneakily playing really sound footy. They’re one of the best defensive teams right now, hosting a Bulldogs side that’s struggled recently, dropping four straight.

I like Carlton to hang around in this one (see more below), and while Brisbane is capable of carrying the lion’s share of this total, if Carlton can pitch in, it should be a breeze.

While the Swans are probably the only team you could argue is better than Hawthorn, they just gave up a ton of points to Melbourne. Their offense is humming, but they’re on the road for this one against a North side that’s eager to show they belong in the playoff discussion. No better chance than this.

I’m pairing this with the under. The Swans have been crushing overs this year, so when the numbers get this high, I’ll take the under and hope for one slow quarter or some unpleasant weather to keep things under the bloated total here.

The Giants’ offense has been Jekyll and Hyde this year, going over 100 three times, but under 70 four times. While Essendon has given up almost 400 points their last three matches, they ought to be able to keep this one close if GWS can’t convert their opportunities.

Lastly, I’ve got a couple of fliers on Carlton and St. Kilda. They’re playing good sides on the road, which is a recipe for disaster, but my numbers show value on the dogs here.

Just For Fun Plays

If I was throwing out some moneyline plays this week, I’d consider betting Fremantle -130, Port Adelaide -110, and St. Kilda +165.

I also love to take my 4 or 5 best plays and put them in a round robin. If you’re unfamiliar with round robins, it’s essentially a 2-leg box bet, where you parlay each of the 4 or 5 plays by twos. So for this one, I’d take the 4 spread plays: Freo, Port, North, and Essendon, and parlay Freo with Port, Freo with North, Freo with Essendon, Port with North, Port with Essendon, and North with Essendon. So six 2-leg parlays in all combinations.

When I have five plays, I’ll do it with 3-leg parlays as well. For -110 or -115 bets, you have to hit 3/4 or 3/5 legs to come out ahead. Another great way to do round robins is with plus money plays. That way, it requires fewer legs to get net-positive.

Give it a try if you like!

2-4 this past week.

That puts us at 12-14 and around 3.56u in the red. We’ll keep trying though!

The good news is I like a bunch of home teams this week. Hopefully that works in our favor and we string together some Ws.

AFL Plays of the Week

Collingwood +21.5 vs Hawthorn
Fremantle -21.5 at Western*
Adelaide/Port Adelaide u177.5
West Coast/Richmond u184.5
St. Kilda -14.5 at Carlton
Sydney/Melbourne o186.5

My Explanations

Collingwood’s been all over the place this year and Hawthorn is arguably the best team in the AFL this year, but this is a big rivalry and 21.5 is a lot of points for a Collingwood side whose bread and butter has been winning tight games late over the past few years.

The Bulldogs have a great roster. They’re absolutely gutted by injuries though. If they’re healthy, this feels like one they can win easily. But look at these numbers over the last three weeks: 64, 56, and 60. That’s how many points they’ve scored. 104, 131, 126. That’s how many points they’ve allowed. The thing to watch is the injury report. I’ll probably scratch this bet if Western gets three or more guys back this week.

The Showdown. Always a classic. Adelaide has won five of the last six Showdowns, but Port is in better form right now. The line’s too tight to call, so I’ll take the under here.

West Coast and Richmond are the two worst defenses in the league, but they’re also two of the worst offenses. We’re hoping for poor kicking for this high total.

Carlton stinks.

Sydney can score and my numbers say bet Melbourne +31.5, but it seems like the over’s just as smart a play here if you like Melbourne to hang with the high-scoring Swans.

Good luck!

I mentioned last week how in my several years of doing this, I’ve had tons of rounds where I lost money, but they’re typically a 5-5 week or a 3-4 week where you’re just losing one unit or just the juice. It’s the weeks where we go 9-2 that get us firmly net positive.

Well, I called upon the gambling gods and they bit. 2-6. It stinks!

Sure, a couple bad breaks, but mostly just misses. It happens sometimes! I probably shouldn’t invoke it. Whatcha gonna do?

That knocks out all our profit for the season and stacks us at 10-10 on the year. That puts us down about 1.3 units.

Onward and upward.

AFL Plays of the Week

Collingwood -17.5 at Essendon
Fremantle -36.5 vs Carlton
Fremantle/Carlton u178.5
West Coast +39.5 at St. Kilda
Adelaide +19.5 at Brisbane
North Melbourne +16.5 at GWS

My numbers are screaming to take Western at home against Sydney, but Western literally had their three best players go down with injuries last week, so I’m going to lay off that one here.

The line is not out for the Richmond/Melbourne match, but that should have Melbourne favored by 30-40 points.

Carlton is in a tailspin and Fremantle is returning home for this one, on the West Coast where they typically play better. These two teams have four common opponents already, where Fremantle has gone 4-0 with an average margin of victory of 29 points and Carlton has gone 1-3 with and average margin of -13 plus they’re coming off a heartbreaking loss to their biggest rival. Bad spot for the Blues.

We’re betting on a couple of sides that are trending down in West Coast and Adelaide. We’re buying low, looking for them to cover their margins. Adelaide is averaging less than 10 point margins. The two matches they’ve played where the margin exceeded 8 points were wins.

Let’s get back in the black!

We followed up a 5-2 record in Round 4 with a 3-2 record in Round 5. Most everywhere I look, I get odds at -115. Sometimes you get -110, but for the most part, most American books are juicing these odds so they don’t have to put effort into validating the lines. That means a win pays $0.87 on the dollar.

Overall, we’re 8-4 and up 2.96 units. I’ll track this all season long, and hopefully you can find better odds where you are.

I’m not going to sit here and tell you to bet these heavily. That’s a recipe for disaster and I don’t want to jinx myself. BUT! Without looking too deeply into my history, I’m pretty sure there are rarely weeks where my plays lose 2+ units. Usually, we’re right around +/- one unit, and there is occasionally a round or two where the plays go like 9-2 and we’re up big. So just a little food for thought based on the results I’ve seen over the past five-ish years I’ve been betting on Aussie Rules.

Outside of official plays, I suggested three spread plays that went 1-2, and two totals that both hit. I also suggested three ML plays that all lost. Whatcha gonna do?

I also suggested taking the unders in the last two matches at the Adelaide Oval, since the AFL was playing five games in 4 days on the same field. Both of those hit as well.

Here are this week’s plays.

AFL Plays of the Week

Western +11.5 at Geelong
Geelong/Western o187.5
GWS +26.5 at Sydney
Gold Coast/Essendon u189.5
Port Adelaide +40.5
Adelaide -15.5 vs St. Kilda
West Coast +43.5 vs Fremantle
West Coast/Fremantle u185.5

My favorite play of the week is Adelaide -15.5.

I have conflicting indicators on the Gold Coast/Essendon match, so I’ll stick with the total play there. Let me know if you’re tailing!

You may be wondering why we’ve got a bird pic as our lead image today. That’s a magpie. The same magpie that burned us this past week, and the same magpie we’re backing again this week as our top play.

I gave seven official plays last week and those went 5-2. Good for you for tailing me. You’re a very smart boy.

Collingwood happened to be without the best player in the sport, and while that doesn’t explain the entirety of their 54 point drubbing they took, it certainly ended up being important to our chances.

Nick Daicos has been done in by his hammy. I have no idea what his status looks like for this week and I imagine most of the training staff in Collingwood don’t have that answer yet either.

Let’s recap the rest of the plays last week, shall we?

Essendon easily covered the +70.5, Melbourne won outright, as did North Melbourne, and Geelong almost pulled out the W, easily covering their +10.5 spread. We split on the two totals I gave you, easily sailing under in Richmond/Port Adelaide, and then getting done in almost exclusively by Sydney as they contributed 163 points toward the 181.5 total.

I suggested maybe throwing some money on Collingwood and Geelong moneylines and they both lost. I had a couple of leans on a pair of totals and those split as well. That’s why these aren’t official plays I guess!

This week is the Gather Round, where all teams travel to Adelaide to play. Sounds like a really fun week. Five matches will be played at the Adelaide Oval over 4 days, while two smaller venues each host a pair. I haven’t looked into it, but I wonder if taking the under in the fourth or fifth match at the Adelaide Oval might be a good idea, given that the field ought to be beat up pretty good by then. Those matches are Hawthorn/Western and the last match of the week Port Adelaide/St. Kilda, in case you want to test it out.

Here are this week’s plays.

AFL Plays of the Week

Carlton +32.5 at Adelaide
Collingwood +10.5 vs Fremantle
Essendon +26.5 vs Melbourne
Gold Coast +2.5 at Sydney
Port Adelaide +6.5 vs St. Kilda

Many of the totals for matches this week aren’t out yet, so I don’t have any totals for you this week. If you’re looking to throw a little extra scratch around, I thought about taking North Melbourne +34.5, Western +7.5, and Richmond +34.5 as well as The GWS/Richmond over 180.5 and the Essendon/Melbourne under 189.5.

There are a few moneyline spots I like here as well: Collingwood +145, Western +120, and Port Adelaide +120.

Again, just the plays up top are graded. These are just for fun. Let me know if you tailed last week and if you have any questions, leave a comment!

It’s time to kick off some more footy picks around here.

In case you missed out in past years, we here at SLP like all the kinds of football we can get and that includes Australian Rules Football. Familiarize yourself with a great sport, or don’t! The plays will be the plays. We’re here to make money.

I like to give my system I’ve developed a few weeks of data, and now that we’re through the Opening Round as well as Rounds 1-3, I’m ready to start saying these with my chest!

Here are this week’s plays.

AFL Plays of the Week

Collingwood +16.5 at Brisbane
Essendon +70.5 at Western
Melbourne +19.5 vs Gold Coast
Geelong +10.5 at Hawthorn
North Melbourne +8.5 vs Carlton
Richmond/Port Adelaide u179.5
West Coast/Sydney u181.5

Collingwood and Essendon are my favorite plays, so you may consider throwing a little extra on those two plays. I like Collingwood to keep this one within a kick and while I’m fully aware that Western may easily beat Essendon by 100, I’ve got this one pegged closer to 50.

Only the plays specified as plays of the week will be graded, but if you’re feeling froggy, you can consider betting a little on Geelong (+140) and Collingwood (+175) to win outright. I also have leans on some totals, with Adelaide/Fremantle u180.5 and Melbourne/Gold Coast u183.5.

And in case you’re wondering how things are shaking out early this year, the spread plays in the Opening Round went 1-2, Round 1 went 3-2, Round 2 I had no plays, Round 3 went 3-0. That’s 7-4 to start the year. Totals have gone 6-5, with overs going 3-1 and unders going 3-4.

Let me know if you’re tailing!

If you’ll recall, I gave out my Super Bowl play last week, taking New England +4.5. I still like that a lot. In fact, there hasn’t been a larger Super Bowl spread in 16 years(!!).

Also, I think the total is pretty fair here. I don’t see much value on a play either way, though if forced, I’d lean very slightly to the over. That brings us to…

Live Bets!

There are a few situations I want to highlight here. One, regarding the total, is that:

If the total drops below 42, take the live over

If the total climbs to as high as 52, take the live under

That’s a ten point window where this game is likely to land, in my opinion.

The ideal live total scenario is a low scoring 1H followed by a higher scoring 2H, because that meshes well with a recent trend in CCGs and Super Bowls:

The halftime underdog covers the 2H spread 64% of the time

Consider placing a spread bet on the losing team at halftime.

Prop Bets!

These are just for fun! Tail them, fade them, drop your own plays in the comments. Good luck!

Heads

Seahawks to win coin toss

1st play of game is a rush

Drake Maye o35.5 rushing yards

Kayshon Boutte longest rec o17.5

Kenneth Walker u20 rushes

Sam Darnold longest completion u35.5

Seahawks by 1-3 points +460

• Analytics of the “Hockey Hail Mary”: Al explores the success rate of pulling the goalie in the NHL. While it often feels like an exercise in futility, statistics show it works (results in a goal) roughly 10% to 20% of the time—better odds than a traditional football Hail Mary.

• National Championship Post-Mortem: A deep dive into the Indiana vs. Miami title game. The crew discusses the “likability” of Indiana, the demographic makeup of the Hoosier fanbase, and the heartbreak of Miami losing on a final-play interception.

• The Price of Loyalty: A breakdown of the staggering costs of following a team through a playoff run. For a family of four, attending multiple bowl games and a National Championship can easily soar to a $30,000–$40,000 expense.

• Hard Rock Nostalgia: The guys reminisce about the “Golden Hour” at Hard Rock Stadium and the venue’s rotating identity, from Dolphin Stadium and Landshark to Sun Life and its current naming rights.

• Super Bowl Preview & USC Legacies: * The QB Matchup: Drake May (Patriots) vs. Sam Darnold (Seahawks).

  • Trivia: The bizarre but true story of Sam Darnold’s grandfather, Dick Hammer—a firefighter and original Marlboro Man.

  • The Lines: With Seattle favored at -4.5 and an over/under of 46, the guys debate whether New England can start a new dynasty or if “regression” is coming for the stat-heads.

Super Bowl Sunday is still more than a week away and we’re left in that weird football dead zone where the season is essentially over and teams are jettisoning coaches across the league, scouting players for the draft, churning out mock draft after mock draft while there is still one more (real) game left to be played (apologies to the Pro Bowl).

What’s the deal with branding and no one being able to even say Super Bowl? Everything is “the Big Game” or whatever. I know it has to do with promotions and profiting off another company’s branding but I hate it. Everyone knows what you mean! Anyway, NFL goons, please leave me alone.

I’m sure as *THE BIG GAME* approaches, I’ll probably put out some fun prop bets just for fun for you all to tag along on. For instance, I typically bet the national anthem over/under (though in recent years, the practice sessions have been leaked, scrapping the bet by the big day), the coin toss, maybe the color of the gatorade, etc. I might even whip up some player props I like too. But first, let’s recap Conference Championship Week.

CCG Recap

I gave out two plays last week, and as has become a trend in the postseason, they split. New England failed to cover in what became a second half blizzard. Naturally, I feel like they would have covered easily without the snow, but I guess we’ll never know! The Rams and Seahawks sailed over. Should’ve bet racks on that one.

My numbers leaned Seattle and I ended up betting on them as well, so I came out ahead, even if you didn’t. Sorry about that! I gotta have some action ykwim???

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Super Bowl Plays

Just one play here.

NE +4.5

*in my absolute best Borat voice* My numbers(!) have this one at New England -3.5 and the total at 46. While I don’t like the Pats to win outright, 4.5 points feels like way too much for a matchup between great offenses and great defenses. Both of these teams’ units (haha, units) rank in the top 5 in most metrics. Idk, maybe I made that up, but the stats I look at have both offenses and both defenses highly ranked.

I think the line is where it’s at because the Pats have played two underwhelming games offensively which just so happened to be against two of the best defenses in the league and one of which happened in a blizzard for 30 minutes. Kind of tough sledding there.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks seem inevitable. Also, I like the Seahawks and while I contend that if this exact Patriots team had a different logo and colors, they’d be a fan favorite, I also am sick as shit of seeing them be successful. Making the Super Bowl is good enough. The Hawks can take it home though. That’s a much more fun story *to me*, and that’s what’s important.

So Pats to cover, Seahawks to win. That’s what I’m pulling for.

If you were forcing me to pick a side on the total, I’d lean very slightly to the over. When factoring in Red Zone performance, the total should be closer to 48.5, but including that metric in my projections is still a work in progress.

Let me know if you have any player props or game bets you like! I tend to spray the board for the Super Bowl.

One Last Thing!

If you’ve found these write-ups enjoyable and/or profitable, please share with a pal or two! Would love to get our subscribers up over a hundred, especially since there’s likely to be a little downtime over the next two or three months.

We may have something for March Madness, and Aussie Rules Football kicks off in March, but I may not have any plays there until April.

Thanks for tagging along!

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Buffalo dropped the ball and the weather seemed to affect what should have been a fun one in Chicago. I mean, I guess it was still pretty fun as it was. You know what I mean.

New England came through though. I hope you were able to decipher the plays there. I had New England -11 with a total of 42.5. They won by 12 and the scores tallied 44 points. While I leaned over, it didn’t qualify as a play at 42.5. So that puts us at 3-3 last week.

Only two games this week, so I’ll go into a little detail on each one.

AFC Championship Game

The New England Patriots head to Denver to play the Bo Nix-less Broncos. My numbers take the full season into account, so I want you to know that my numbers are already factoring in Bo Nix playing for the Broncos, which certainly won’t happen.

I’ve got the Patriots by 14. I’ve also got the total in this one pegged at about 45 points. With the current spread at New England -4.5, there’s tons of value on the Pats at the moment, even before factoring in that Jarrett Stidham will be seeing his first meaningful snaps in about 8 years and his first playoff snaps ever. Against what may be the league’s best defense.

I think the talking heads and the casual fans have been going on about how good Denver’s defense is and how well Stidham played in the preseason as if the Broncos are about to go play against the Raiders. The Patriots are a juggernaut. I hate to be the one to tell you this. If they don’t have the best defense in the league, there’s certainly an argument to be made for the unit. And offensively, you’ve got the NFL MVP frontrunner leading an offense that you could also argue is one of the best in the league.

I think there are a few things keeping this line where it’s at currently:

1. New England’s offense didn’t look very good against…Houston’s defense. Houston’s D might be the only one you could argue is better than New England’s. The Pats won that heavyweight bout easily.

2. Denver beat the golden boy, or rather, Josh Allen threw that game away. Not to take anything away from the Broncos, but the Bills’ defense is not good and Josh Allen made a ton of bad decisions with the ball and still had a shot to beat Denver in the Mile High City.

3. It’s early enough that the volume of bets hasn’t really come in on this game yet. I expect this line to move.

I imagine this line will close closer to 7. It’ll still be off. I suspect Vegas will lose their asses on this one. Unfortunate for them, and unfortunate for Bo Nix.

Play: New England -4.5

NFC Championship Game

The LA Rams travel to Seattle for the second time this season to face the Seahawks in a winner-take-all Game 3 of this three game series.

You’ll hear all week how even this matchup is and it’s true. These two teams have played a couple of the best games of the season, rivaled only by maybe the Chicago/Green Bay games.

But one thing you probably won’t hear about is how much of these two games the Rams led for. The Rams led for 53:38 in the first game. Despite the Seahawks trailing by as much as 9, they still had a FG attempt to win the game as the clock expired. Then, in Seattle, the Rams led for 20:57, leading by as much as 16 in the 4th Quarter.

The Rams only trailed for 22:46 over the two games combined.

The Seahawks trailed for 1:14:35.

So my point is this: what happens if Seattle isn’t playing from behind the entire game?

I trust that will be a point of emphasis in Seattle this week. When we see teams play three times in one season, there’s always some added wrinkles that end up breaking the game open. While on one hand, I can see why everyone expects this game to be close, but on the other, I think it’s quite possible that if Seattle is the one to build the early lead, that the Rams will have a much harder time keeping this one close.

My numbers have this game pegged at Seattle -3.5 and the total at 50.

The actual line is Seattle -2.5 and the total is 46.5.

Play: LAR/SEA o46.5

Good luck and let me know in the comments if you’ve got a play you like this week!

Week 18 Recap

So let’s start by recapping the Week 18 plays I gave out here and tying a bow on the regular season. I gave out 20 plays in total, going 7-4 on spread plays and 5-4 on totals.

That puts the final regular season tally at 96-91-4. That’s about -3.64u on the season. Oh well. I found a good system around Week 11 for setting my own lines and those plays went 49-27 on spreads and 34-28 on totals. The totals part needs some work still, but 64%+ on spread plays helped us get back over .500 on the season. We’ll get ‘em next year.

Wild Card Recap

Not that this serves any purpose for you, the reader, but my plays this past week were:

LAR -10.5
LAR/CAR o46.5
GB +1.5*
GB/CHI o45.5
JAX +1.5
SF +4.5
NE -3.5

***HOU/PIT o38.5***

So a few things here.

One, there’s still a play available! I’m on the over tonight! Go bet it!

Two, you’ll notice an asterisk above next to the Green Bay play. That’s because despite my numbers showing value on the Packers, I actually bet this one the other way based on a few factors including recent performance, weather, and coaching. We’ll grade it as a loss here, but it wasn’t one for me!

We’re 4-3 at this point, with the total tonight still in play.

Also, my numbers on the other totals didn’t cross thresholds, but I had leans on the under in all three of those matchups and they all went under. Yay me.

And now, onto the divisional round…

Divisional Round Plays

BUF -1.5
BUF/DEN o46.5
SF/SEA o45.5
LAR -3.5
LAR/CHI o51.5

Lastly, we’re still waiting to see which team the Patriots host next week.

I’ve got the line against HOU as -11 with a total of 42.5, and the line against PIT as -13.5 with a total around 49.5. I doubt we see New England hang numbers this big, so my guess is I’ll likely be on the Patriots at home again.

As a reminder, I like more than a FG of cushion on my numbers, so against HOU, I’d take NE laying 7.5 or less, over 39, or under 46. For PIT, I’d take NE laying 10 or less, over 46, or under 53.

If the Patriots’ spread or total warrants a play as described above, I’ll be counting it.

Good luck!

Week 16 plays went 8-4, bringing the season long tally to 84-83-4.

The picks I had last week, which I did not give out here, went 6-4 on spreads and 5-6 on totals, so basically a wash.

Here’s what I’ve got this week, and keep in mind that team motivation is a huge reason some of these spreads are so far off, so I’ll probably pare my plays down significantly, even though the numbers like a lot more plays here.

NFL Plays

SEA -1.5
DAL -3.5
CLE +7.5
GB +7.5
JAX -13.5
LAR -7.5
LAC +12.5
NE -10.5
PHI -4
BUF -6.5
PIT +3.5
DET/CHI o50.5
DAL/NYG o49.5
GB/MIN o35.5
ARI/LAR o46.5
LAC/DEN o37.5
KC/LV o36.5
WAS/PHI o39
NYJ/BUF o38
BAL/PIT o40.5

Good luck!

Ok. I’ve been tweaking my spreadsheets throughout the season, and it seems like I’ve got the spreads dialed in fairly well. The totals are skewing too heavily toward the overs, so I’m going to need to work on those. I’ll give them out here in case you want something to measure your numbers against, but we won’t be counting them en masse anymore until I sort that out.

The other thing I look at most weeks is the zig zag theory. If you’re unfamiliar, you bet the teams that did not cover the previous week and who are playing teams that did cover the previous week. This has historically bore out profitable, and typically hits at a roughly 60% clip. This year, zig zags are 50-42, or 54%. Still profitable but barely (you’d be up about 3.5 units at -110 odds).

I usually factor in zig zags, ELO, yardage, and scoring data into my predictions. The spreads I’ve been tracking over the past five weeks are 27-12. This is obviously too small a sample size, but I think the zig zags are weighing down the performance on my spread plays as I’ve leaned toward the zig zags more heavily while tweaking.

All of that is to say that despite a down year, I think I’ve got my numbers in as good a spot as ever. We’ve got three weeks left in the regular season, so we’re approaching that point where each team’s want-to is probably more important than whether they covered the previous week or how they performed over the entire season. So the while I’d like to open things up and play a little more loose, I’ll probably still air on the side of caution here.

Full season plays are 76-79-4. That’s down about 9.84 units. Let’s try to get back to even before the playoffs.

NFL Plays

Seattle +1.5
Philly -6.5
Green Bay -1.5
Buffalo -10
LA Chargers +2.5
NY Jets +4.5
Carolina +3
Jacksonville +3
Pittsburgh +7
PIT/DET o51.5
New England +3
MIN/NYG o43.5

Here are some plays I’m passing on this week and why:

Kansas City -3.5 - Mahomes is out. That should throw all the numbers out the window. The Chiefs are still a much more talented side than the Titans, but we’re not in a spot to bet question mark spots here. I’ll just lay off.

Miami +1.5 - Newly eliminated from playoff contention, on a short week, Burrow back for Cincy. I know the Bengals are eliminated as well, but the season long numbers aren’t relevant here.

Indianapolis +6.5 - The Colts have a great defense, but the offense is an issue with Rivers at the helm. He played admirably last week, but this 49ers defense will eat him alive. I might bet San Fran instead.

Here are the totals my numbers like this week, just for confirmation purposes. Not official plays.

LAR/SEA o44.5
PHI/WAS o44.5
GB/CHI o46.5
LAC/DAL o49.5
CIN/MIA o50.5
TB/CAR o45.5

So I gave out five plays last week. Three of them covered easily, one fell apart at halftime, and the other fell short late. 3-2. That moves us to 70-70-4 on the year. Stinky!

But! There’s a big but here.

I had ten overs I liked but since they were all overs, I thought maybe my numbers weren’t quite dialed in well enough. Well guess how those ten overs did?

They went 9-1.

We got a little help on the Denver over with the inexplicable last second FG which both hit the over and got the Raiders to cover, and then in the MNF game, we got on the total early and hit that one by the hook in OT.

Maybe my numbers are good? Who can say.

NFL Plays

Atlanta +4.5
Chargers +4.5
New England +1.5
BUF/NE u50.5
Las Vegas +11.5
LV/PHI o38.5
Arizona +10
Indianapolis +13.5
IND/SEA o42.5
Minnesota +6
Miami +3
MIA/PIT o42.5
CLE/CHI o40.5
WAS/NYG o47.5
DET/LAR u55.5

15 plays this week. I thought about pulling the Colts spread and total, but it’s such a big spread and the Colts are in crunch time, so why not leave it and see if they show some life? Feel free to leave those two off if you want.

NFL Futures Check-In

Just a short thought evaluating the likelihood of each of our midseason win total bets hitting at this point.

PHI o12.5 - LOSS
KC o10.5 - LOSS

IND o11.5 - Life support.
TB o10.5 - Life support.
GB u10.5 - Life support.
MIA u6.5 - Life support.

CIN u5.5 - Feels real bad.

DET o10.5 - Maybe? Hopefully?
NO o4.5 - Maybe. Feels good.
ARI u5.5 - Likely.

HOU o8.5 - Just one more win gets this one home.
BAL u9.5 - Just one more loss gets this one home.

So the way things stand, it’s looking like 5-7 at best currently. Houston and Baltimore are both +130 or better, which helps.

63-59-4.

How do I follow that up? With the most depressing Thanksgiving ever. I gave you 5 Turkey Day plays and they all lost. Then we lost on Black Friday too.

0-6 to start the week and back into the hole we go.

By the time Sunday rolled around, we were past it, going 4-3, but the damage is done. We’re 4-9 this week with New England -7.5 pending.

67-68-4. Tough going this year. I wouldn’t blame you for passing on these, but here are the plays I like this week.

NFL Plays

Detroit -3
Atlanta +7.5
Minnesota +1.5
Miami -2.5
Kansas City -3

I have a lot of totals I like, but they’re all overs. I’d play these at your own risk. I won’t track these as plays, but I’ll lay them out for you in case you need confirmation.

SEA/ATL o43.5
CIN/BUF o51.5
TEN/CLE o33.5
WAS/MIN o41.5
MIA/NYJ o41.5
NO/TB o42.5
PIT/BAL o43.5
DEN/LV o40.5
CHI/GB o44.5
PHI/LAC o40.5

First, I gave you Fresno St -2.5 last week. That hit and it brought our regular season total to 38-21 on official plays. Mighty fine work if you ask me.

We even hit on 3 of the 4 bonus plays in our revenge week. I’m pretty sure the bonus plays were right around .500 on the year.

So with the regular season in the books, let’s look at the conference championship matchups this week and see if we can do a little window shopping.

No Official Plays This Week

First and foremost, there are no official plays this week. Maybe that’s a bummer, but it allows us the freedom to simply enjoy good football and throw some beer money on the sides we like.

Miami and the ACC Chaos Theory

As a Miami Hurricane fan/alum, I’m already working on the mental gymnastics to get Miami into the playoff. Here are my favorite options at the moment:

1. Miami jumps Notre Dame based on nothing but fan peer pressure.

2. Miami jumps BYU if they lose to Texas Tech again.

3. Ole Miss does the honorable thing and backs out of the playoff now that Lane Kiffin has left for greener pastures at LSU.

None of those are going to happen, but a guy can delude himself for a week.

If you aren’t fully up-to-date on the College Football Playoff, there’s a particularly fun scenario I can’t stop myself from rooting for: the ACC being left out of the playoff completely.

If 7-5 Duke wins the ACC, they are almost certainly going to be ranked behind the American Athletic Conference champion (UNT or Tulane), AND the Sun Belt conference champion (JMU, barring a huge upset).

That would leave Duke as the sixth highest ranked conference champion and out of the playoff altogether. With Miami currently outside looking in, there would be no ACC representative in the 12 team field. Embarrassing. Delightful. Chaotic. College Football at its finest.

Beer Money Bets

All of that aside, here are the sides I like this week, just for fun.

Troy +21.5

The Troy Boys are thriving at the right time. They’re much worse than James Madison, but more than 3 TDs feels like too much.

BYU +13.5

Miami’s hopes rely on the committee feeling bad for them and finding an excuse to jump a team like BYU. Comparing records, BYU’s more deserving. So Miami needs to see BYU get blown out. I think they keep this one respectable.

Virginia -3.5

The other fun thing to root for, ACC chaos, is almost certainly not going to happen. The ACC is going to fix this one so they get a team into the playoff. UVA by a touchdown feels right.

For the past few seasons, I’ve been betting on Aussie Rules Football to decent success. I decided this year that I would apply the same methodology to the women’s contest. The women’s league runs essentially from the end of the men’s season until just this past week.

Last week I gave you North Melbourne -23.5 in the Grand Final, saying it should be closer to 45. The final: North Melbourne 56 - 16 Brisbane. Sometimes the numbers work out right.

That puts the women’s season tally at 31-26.

It could’ve been better, but we came out ahead.

Thanks for following along and hopefully we put a little green in your pocket.

I promise, no more Aussie Rules until March. Cheers.

The only potential plays I had last week were some non-con games where the spreads come out later in the week. The only one that fit the bill was actually Mercer +26.5 which I think ended up available at most books by Saturday. That’s graded as a loss.

That brings the season long tally to 37-21. The bonus plays went 1-4. Those haven’t been good. I’ll continue to give them here, but I’d only use it as confirmation if you like a side, or maybe you can fade them.

Official Plays

Fresno St -2.5

We were on the Bulldogs last week and they didn’t come close to covering. This time, I’ve got them closer to a full touchdown favorite.

Bonus Plays

Louisiana Tech +2.5
Syracuse +3.5
Troy +6.5
Washington St -13.5

What’s funny, looking at these all laid down together, is I’m pretty sure I lost the last time I had a play on all five of these sides. So call it revenge week. Let’s go get those Ls back!

Good luck and enjoy your holiday weekend folks!